We have all been there: It is a sizzling summer time day, and also you roll as much as your native ice-cream store for 2 scoops of double fudge chocolate chip. However alas — at present, they’re all out, and all they’ve left is vanilla. You are not precisely comfortable about it, however you order a scoop of it anyway, as a result of, hey, some ice cream is healthier than no ice cream.
That is principally the scenario we’re in with debates. Barring a last-minute change of coronary heart, former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris have debated for the final time this 12 months, leaving just one main occasion on the marketing campaign calendar: Tuesday’s vice presidential debate between Ohio Sen. JD Vance and Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz.
However the fact is, it is simply not the identical. Usually, fewer folks watch vice presidential debates than presidential debates. And whereas presidential debates are traditionally one of many few issues that may really make a dent within the polls, vice presidential debates haven’t got the identical monitor report. True, they can barely impression how voters really feel concerning the vice presidential nominees themselves — however on the finish of the day, working mates do not have an effect on many individuals’s votes.
Vice presidential candidates are likely to get overshadowed by their counterparts on the high of the ticket — and vice presidential debates normally do too. In response to Nielsen, since 2008, presidential debates have drawn an common viewers of 65.7 million folks. However vice presidential debates have drawn a mean of simply 54.1 million viewers. Within the final three presidential elections, the vice presidential debate was the least-watched debate of the autumn.
However 54.1 million folks continues to be a fairly large viewers — so have previous vice presidential debates really modified the trajectory of the race? That seems to be a tough query to reply.
Usually, we might verify this by evaluating what the polls stated earlier than the talk to what they stated a few weeks later. If the polls shifted considerably within the wake of the talk, it could recommend (although not verify!) that the talk made a distinction.
However the issue is, most up-to-date vice presidential debates have been adopted in a short time by presidential debates. For example, in 2000, there was a presidential debate six days after the vice presidential one. In 2008, 2012 and 2016, there was a presidential debate 5 days after the vice presidential one. And in 2004, there was a presidential debate simply three days after the vice presidential one!
That does not depart a whole lot of time for the (potential) impression of the vice presidential debate to indicate up within the polling earlier than it is (doubtlessly) overwhelmed by the impression of the presidential debate. The chart under exhibits the 538 nationwide polling averages* of the 2000-2020 presidential elections within the days instantly earlier than and after the vice presidential debates. As you possibly can see, they do not transfer very a lot within the aftermath of vice presidential debates — and after they do transfer, it is normally after the presidential debate has already occurred, making it likelier that the presidential debate precipitated the motion slightly than the vice presidential debate.
The one time this century that the nationwide polls moved greater than 1 share level after the vice presidential debate however earlier than the presidential debate was in 2000. In 2004, 2008, 2012 and 2016, the motion was negligible. After all, this does not essentially imply the vice presidential debate would not have affected the race — possibly the impression simply did not have time to indicate up within the polls within the quick window between the 2 debates. However in 2020, there was no presidential debate for greater than two weeks after the vice presidential debate, and the polls barely budged throughout that point.
All of this is not to say that vice presidential debates haven’t any impression in anyway. It seems that they’ll have small results on the recognition of the vice presidential candidates themselves. We calculated polling averages of the favorable and unfavorable rankings of six latest non-incumbent vice presidential candidates across the time of their vice presidential debates.** Most of them noticed some small change of their internet favorability ranking (favorable ranking minus unfavorable ranking) after the talk. Particularly, two weeks after the talk, their internet favorability ranking had shifted by a mean of two factors.
Going into Tuesday evening’s debate, Walz is considerably extra standard than Vance. As of Tuesday at 9 a.m. Japanese, Walz has a mean internet favorability ranking of +4 factors (40 % favorable, 36 % unfavorable). Vance, in the meantime, is underwater, with an common internet favorability ranking of -11 factors (35 % favorable, 46 % unfavorable). Primarily based on historical past, every candidate can have the chance to barely change that on the debate. However it could even be an enormous shock if the talk adjustments People’ total emotions concerning the vice presidential nominees (i.e., if Vance all of the sudden turns into extra standard than Walz).
And bear in mind, vice presidential candidates themselves do not matter all that a lot. Besides in extraordinary circumstances, voters make up their minds primarily based on the individuals who really stand to wield energy — the presidential candidates — not those who may doubtlessly inherit it if one thing goes unsuitable. So even when the talk does change People’ perceptions of the vice presidential candidates, that doubtless will not change their precise votes (as historical past has proven) — as a result of few individuals are basing their votes on the vice presidential candidates to start with.
G. Elliott Morris contributed analysis.
Footnotes
*Utilizing our present polling-average methodology utilized retroactively.
**Once more, utilizing our present favorability polling-average methodology utilized retroactively. We had sufficient knowledge to do that for all non-incumbent vice presidential candidates within the final 20 years besides then-Sen. Joe Biden in 2008.
