Counting the votes will lengthen past election night time on Tuesday, and figuring out the end result of the US presidential race may, too. Even in states that depend their ballots comparatively shortly, if the race is as shut because the polls say, it may take days earlier than a winner could be projected (election outcomes are by no means official till closing certification).
In 2020, a document variety of individuals voted by mail due to the pandemic, and plenty of states have been processing giant numbers of mail ballots for the primary time. Whereas mail voting has dropped off in lots of states and others have made adjustments to hurry up counting, all these ballots are nonetheless extra time consuming to depend.
Democrats have been extra prone to solid mail ballots, and variations in timing for counting them can contribute to so-called “mirages” within the reported outcomes — instances wherein the kind of ballots reported first favor one social gathering in a means that’s unrepresentative of the eventual outcome.
Right here’s what we count on from vote counting in every presidential battleground state:
Georgia
Most Georgia voters are inclined to vote early in particular person, and vote reporting is often comparatively quick. The share of ballots solid by mail, which might usually take longer to depend, is predicted to be small. The mail voting fee returned to the state’s normal stage of round 6 p.c in 2022 after rising to about 25 p.c in 2020.
The state may nonetheless be counting corrected mail ballots, abroad ballots and provisional ballots within the days after the election.
WHAT HAPPENED IN 2020
It took greater than two weeks to name the state for Joseph R. Biden Jr. in 2020. The explanation: The presidential race was so shut {that a} hand-tallied audit of ballots was initiated. The Related Press didn’t name the race till the state audit confirmed Mr. Biden’s victory — by about 12,000 votes.
RECOUNT RULES
There isn’t any computerized recount set off, however candidates might request one if the ultimate margin is lower than or equal to 0.5 share factors of complete votes solid for the workplace.
North Carolina
Early, in-person voting could be very fashionable, and votes are sometimes counted in a short time, with 98 to 99 p.c of votes reported by midnight Jap time within the final two main elections. New guidelines imply that early voting outcomes will not be reported instantly at ballot shut time, however mail ballots at the moment are due on Election Day (in 2020, ballots postmarked by Election Day had 9 days to reach).
In 25 western counties affected most by Hurricane Helene on the finish of September, voters have been given particular lodging for casting their ballots, and a small variety of safe tents have been erected to switch destroyed polling websites.
WHAT HAPPENED IN 2020
It took 10 days to name the state for Donald J. Trump, then the president. As a result of the race was so shut, and since ballots postmarked by Election Day have been allowed to reach 9 days later, The Related Press waited till the deadline for counties within the state to certify their outcomes.
RECOUNT RULES
There isn’t any computerized recount set off, however a candidate in a statewide race might request one in the event that they path the main candidate by 0.5 share factors of complete votes solid, or 10,000 votes, whichever is much less. (In 2020, Trump received the state by 1.3 share factors.)
Pennsylvania
It takes longer to depend votes in Pennsylvania, primarily as a result of election staff usually are not allowed to begin processing mail ballots till Election Day. Nonetheless, vote counting sped up considerably from 2020 to 2022, partly due to new, sooner tools and a requirement that almost all counties proceed counting mail ballots with out stopping after polls shut, together with via the night time.
Democrats have been more likely to vote by mail. Within the 2020 presidential race, after an preliminary batch of closely Democratic votes, the reported tally favored Trump till extra mail ballots have been counted, and Biden’s margins elevated.
WHAT HAPPENED IN 2020
On the Saturday after the election in 2020, mail ballots have been nonetheless being counted, and there have been nonetheless quite a lot of excellent provisional ballots within the state. However The Related Press was in a position to undertaking that there have been not sufficient remaining votes left for Mr. Trump, and it known as the race for Mr. Biden (the state additionally supplied the remaining votes he wanted to win the presidency).
RECOUNT RULES
An computerized recount is triggered if the margin in a statewide race is 0.5 share factors or much less of the votes. (In 2020, Biden received the state by 1.2 share factors.)
Michigan
Previously two common elections, about half of the votes in Michigan have been counted by midnight Jap time, and the majority of remaining votes have been counted by midday the subsequent day. However the state has handed main reforms that might velocity issues up: It newly applied 9 days of early in-person voting, and it now permits counties to start processing mail ballots earlier than Election Day (although not all locations plan to reap the benefits of the brand new rule).
Mail ballots — which have been extra prone to be solid by Democrats — got here in slowly over time in 2020. This contributed to a “pink mirage” displaying Mr. Trump forward within the reported tally earlier than all mail ballots had been counted. That sample didn’t maintain within the 2022 election for governor, and it’s unclear how new pre-processing guidelines will have an effect on the order of votes reported.
WHAT HAPPENED IN 2020
In 2020, The Related Press known as the state for Mr. Biden round 6 p.m. Jap time on the day after the election. Whereas some mail ballots had but to be counted, they have been from overwhelmingly Democratic areas.
RECOUNT RULES
An computerized recount is triggered by a margin of two,000 votes or much less in a statewide election.
Wisconsin
Ballot staff can not start processing ballots till Election Day, however they’re required to depend via the night time till they’re completed. In some jurisdictions, together with Milwaukee, absentee ballots are counted at a central facility and are reported in giant batches. A state official advised CNN that full, unofficial outcomes usually are not doubtless till the morning after the election.
In 2020, Mr. Trump was forward within the reported vote till the ultimate outcomes got here in, together with 1000’s of ballots from closely Democratic Milwaukee. This “pink mirage” within the outcomes contributed to conspiracy theories about Mr. Biden’s victory. That sample didn’t repeat in 2022.
WHAT HAPPENED IN 2020
In 2020, the state was known as for Mr. Biden within the early afternoon the day after the election. Solely a small variety of provisional ballots and some hundred ballots from a small township have been left to be counted.
RECOUNT RULES
There isn’t any computerized recount set off, although a candidate might request a recount in the event that they path the successful candidate by a 1 p.c margin or smaller. A recount requested by Mr. Trump in 2020 resulted in a really small web vote acquire for Mr. Biden, who received by a 0.6 share level margin.
Arizona
First outcomes sometimes are available round 10 p.m. Jap time, an hour after polls shut. Most voters solid ballots by mail, and counting sometimes takes awhile. Whereas ballot staff are allowed to course of these ballots that arrive earlier than Election Day upon receipt, they have to wait till after polls near course of those that arrive on Election Day.
Two issues may contribute to longer waits this 12 months. Officers at the moment are required to depend and report the variety of ballots dropped off on Election Day earlier than starting to course of them. And within the state’s largest county, Maricopa, there are such a lot of contests that the poll is 2 pages, which implies extra paper to tabulate. Officers there mentioned full outcomes may take 10 to 13 days.
WHAT HAPPENED IN 2020
In 2020, Fox Information known as the race for Mr. Biden round midnight Jap time on election night time, and The Related Press made the identical name three hours later. However there have been nonetheless many excellent mail and provisional ballots, and The New York Instances and different retailers weren’t sure that Mr. Trump not had a path to victory. The Instances in the end made the decision 9 days after the election, on Nov. 12.
RECOUNT RULES
Mr. Biden received the state by 0.3 share factors in 2020, when the automated recount threshold was 0.1 p.c of the overall votes for the highest two candidates. New laws handed in 2022 elevated that threshold to 0.5 share factors.
Nevada
In current elections, about half of Nevada voters have solid ballots by mail, and counting often takes awhile. Counting may very well be sooner than previously due to new know-how and a rule that permits officers to tabulate ballots sooner. However postmarked ballots are allowed to reach as much as 4 days after the election, on Nov. 9, and voters have till Nov. 12 to deal with errors with their ballots.
WHAT HAPPENED IN 2020
It took 4 days for The Related Press to name the state for Mr. Biden in 2020. There have been nonetheless 1000’s of excellent mail and provisional ballots left to depend, primarily from Clark County.
RECOUNT RULES
There isn’t any computerized recount set off, however any candidate might request one (although they bear the price if they don’t prevail).
The vote depend in each state
We surveyed election officers in all 50 states to know how votes can be counted in 2024. Every state profile beneath consists of presidential race scores, from Stable Republican to Stable Democrat, which replicate the pre-election assessments by the Cook dinner Political Report.
