Voters query Harris’ pitch as agent of change: POLL

Vice President Kamala Harris’ positioning as a change agent is operating into headwinds from her position within the unpopular Biden administration: Whereas three-quarters of Individuals in a brand new ABC Information/Ipsos ballot need her to take a brand new route from President Joe Biden’s, most do not assume she would.

Harris, furthermore, trails former President Donald Trump in having supplied sufficient particulars concerning the insurance policies she’d pursue as president. However shortfalls on the imaginative and prescient factor aren’t hers alone: Greater than half say neither Trump nor Harris has achieved job expressing new concepts for the nation’s future.

The ballot, produced for ABC Information by Langer Analysis Associates with fieldwork by Ipsos, finds that the general public by a broad 74%-22% would like to see Harris go in a brand new route as president somewhat than proceed the insurance policies of the Biden administration. Even most Democrats say so.

However that is not what most individuals count on: 65% as a substitute assume Harris primarily would proceed Biden’s insurance policies, vs. 33% who say she’d chart a brand new course.

See PDF for full outcomes.

Need for change displays how the Biden administration continues to labor beneath deeply detrimental rankings of its financial efficiency. Forty-four % of Individuals say they don’t seem to be as properly off financially as they have been when Biden took workplace, roughly the place it has been since early 2023 and tying probably the most in polling since 1986. Few, 18%, say they’re higher off, although that is up from 13% in January.

Harris’ vulnerability on the difficulty was underscored this week: Requested on ABC’s “The View” what she would have achieved in another way than Biden throughout his presidency, she initially replied, “There may be not a factor that involves thoughts.” (She later stated she would appoint a Republican to her cupboard.) Trump’s marketing campaign pounced on the comment.

Trump, for his half, does higher on preferences vs. expectations, though nonetheless with a niche between the 2. Sixty-four % assume he’d proceed the insurance policies of his earlier administration. Greater than half would like a brand new route as a substitute — but it surely’s 53% who say so, vs. the 74% in search of Harris to maneuver away from Biden’s observe.

One other solution to assess these outcomes is to see how many individuals are aligned in what they need and what they count on from the candidates. Trump does higher: For 54%, what they need and what they count on from him are the identical, be it continuity or change. Fewer, 48%, are aligned on Harris.

The large distinction is that 32% each assume Trump will proceed his previous insurance policies and wish him to do this, whereas simply 18% each assume Harris will proceed Biden’s insurance policies and wish her to do this.

Partisan variations on these questions are telling, and once more mark Biden’s unpopularity. Even amongst Democrats, simply 36% need to see Harris proceed the insurance policies of the Biden administration. Sixty-three % of Democrats need to see Harris take a brand new route.

Throughout the aisle, these numbers are reversed: 65% of Republicans need to see Trump proceed the insurance policies of his earlier administration, whereas only a third desire a new route. Amongst independents, furthermore, twice as many need Trump to proceed his insurance policies as need Harris to proceed Biden’s.

Insurance policies and concepts

When it comes to outlining their insurance policies and expressing their imaginative and prescient, neither candidate shines. Simply 37% say Harris has achieved sufficient to offer particulars concerning the insurance policies she’d pursue as president; extra, albeit solely 42%, say the identical about Trump. 5 share factors is a lead for Trump, however a slim one given his longtime dominance within the nationwide highlight.

On imaginative and prescient, there’s nearly no distinction total: The general public by 53%-46% charges Harris negatively, somewhat than positively, on having new concepts for the nation’s future. It is a comparable 54%-44% for Trump.

Trump is in worse form than Harris on this measure by way of depth of sentiment. Thirty-nine % say he is achieved a downright poor job on new concepts, in contrast with 31% who say this about Harris. Throughout the depth spectrum, far fewer say both has achieved a superb job within the new concepts division — 20% for Trump, 18% for Harris.

Political allegiance is a robust issue right here, proof of how individuals assess candidates by a partisan filter. Ninety-one % of Democrats fee Harris positively on new concepts; 10% of Republicans agree. These numbers flip on Trump: 89% optimistic from Republicans, 8% from Democrats.

Independents fee the candidates primarily equally on new concepts. On doing sufficient to element their insurance policies, nonetheless, Trump does 7 factors higher than Harris amongst independents (although neither does properly, 40% vs. 33%), contributing to his total 5-point benefit on this gauge.

Methodology

This ABC Information/Ipsos ballot was performed on-line by way of the probability-based Ipsos KnowledgePanel® Oct. 4-8, 2024, in English and Spanish, amongst a random nationwide pattern of two,631 adults. Partisan divisions are 29%-29%-30%, Democrats-Republicans-independents. Outcomes have a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 2 share factors, together with the design impact, for the total pattern. Sampling error just isn’t the one supply of variations in polls.

The survey was produced for ABC Information by Langer Analysis Associates, with sampling and information assortment by Ipsos. See particulars on ABC Information’ survey methodology right here.