At a time after we’re all deluged with conflicting polls and statistical ties, Donald Trump’s marketing campaign is unusually assured.
The Kamala Harris operation additionally sees motive for optimism, with information that late deciders are breaking her means by greater than 10%. However she nonetheless casts herself because the underdog. Her “SNL” look doesn’t change that; nor does Trump saying that RFK’s plan to take away fluoride from the water, a serious public well being advance, “sounds okay to me.”
Most media people, both publicly or privately, imagine Trump will win, even because the anti-Trumpers beg their followers to end up for the VP – reminiscent of MSNBC’s Nicolle Wallace asking her ex-boss George W. Bush to publicly again Harris.
The climax of the marketing campaign appears constructed round a gaping gender hole–with Kamala doing much better amongst girls and Trump significantly better amongst males.
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Former President Trump and Vice President Harris are headed for a photograph end on Election Day – although morale in a single camp is evidently far greater than it’s within the different. (AP)
The view from the Trump camp is that registration figures favor Republicans, primarily based on mail-in voting, within the battleground states that may determine the race. Practically half the nation has already voted.
Take the essential commonwealth of Pennsylvania. In 2020, Democrats had a 7.5% benefit, and that’s now shrunk to a 3-point edge.
What’s extra, simply 39% of Democrats who’ve voted there to date are males, in comparison with 49% amongst Republicans.
Democratic strategist Tom Bonier, who seems on MSNBC, says the Pennsylvania voters is rather more Republican, and rather more male, than final time.
Harris wants an enormous turnout in Philadelphia to hold the state, and quite a few information reviews say she’s nonetheless struggling to win over some Black males.
In Wisconsin, the view from Trump World is that in-person voting (which tends to favor the previous president) is outnumbering mail ballots (which lean Democratic). Trump’s energy is amongst male, white and rural voters. So, as within the case of Philly, Harris should do very effectively in Milwaukee and Madison to hold the state.
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Michigan, which Rep. Debbie Dingell lately advised me is a toss-up, stays an enigma, as a result of it doesn’t monitor occasion registration. So the ballgame there could activate how effectively Harris does in Detroit.
The Trump camp sees comparable benefits in such swing states as Georgia and North Carolina, the place public polling is shut however could be an even bigger stretch for a Harris win. The election actually activates the three Blue Wall states.
Possibly Harris ought to have picked Josh Shapiro?
Former President Donald Trump speaks throughout a marketing campaign rally in Lititz, Pa., on Sunday, Nov. 3. The Trump marketing campaign seems assured of a win primarily based on early in-person votes outnumbering mail-in ballots – which skew closely Democratic – in key areas. (AP/Matt Rourke)
In a single key state after one other, native Black leaders are quoted on the file as saying they’re apprehensive about warning indicators of their neighborhood:
Politico: “Town of Milwaukee is trailing the remainder of the state by about 7 p.c each in its mail-in return price and in general registered voter turnout. It’s a warning signal, even some Democrats privately say, for Harris as her marketing campaign appears to be like to run up the rating with city and suburban voters to beat Wisconsin’s rural counties.”
Capital B, Atlanta: The turnout of Black voters in Georgia “has dropped from greater than 29 p.c” on the primary day of early voting “to about 25 p.c…That’s the dangerous information for Harris…
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“Elected leaders and political observers say Democrats in search of a assured win in statewide workplace races in Georgia often have to hit a 30 p.c Black turnout price.”
Charlotte Observer: “As of Wednesday, Black voters had forged 207,000 fewer ballots in contrast with 4 years in the past — a drop of virtually 40 p.c.”
“I’m apprehensive about turnout in Detroit. I believe it’s actual,” stated Jamal Simmons, a former Harris aide, advised ABC.
Democratic presidential nominee Vice President Kamala Harris speaks to reporters after delivering remarks at a church service at Larger Emmanuel Institutional Church of God in Christ, Sunday, Nov. 3, 2024, in Detroit. Former Harris surrogate Jamal Simmons advised ABC that he’s “apprehensive about turnout” within the Motor Metropolis. (AP Photograph/Jacquelyn Martin)
A sunnier view is obtainable by this Politico piece, which says that public polls look like undercounting Harris’ assist.
The story says that “shy Trump voters” – who don’t need to inform pollsters who they’re supporting–are a factor of the previous, given the aggressive nature of his marketing campaign.
As a substitute, many “forgotten” Harris voters are missed by the polls, particularly Republicans pissed off with their very own occasion: Nikki Haley voters.
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Citing a nationwide survey, Politico says 66% of these voting for Haley within the primaries backed Trump in 2016, dropping to 59% 4 years in the past and an estimated 45% this time. “In the meantime, their assist for the Democratic presidential nominee has practically tripled from solely 13 p.c supporting Hillary Clinton in 2016 to 36 p.c indicating an intent to vote for Kamala Harris.”
To which I say: Who the hell is aware of?
We’re on the level now earlier than tomorrow’s election that pollsters are analyzing the polls to determine which of them are off. And–right here comes the cliché – all of it will depend on turnout. Regardless of elevating a billion bucks, if a few of Harris’ potential supporters keep house, that sinks her candidacy.
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The eventualities favored by the Trump group relaxation largely on occasion registration, not polls which have missed the mark within the final two cycles.
That explains why the previous president is extra assured, whilst he asks his advisers whether or not they actually imagine he’s going to win.
