On Tuesday at a press convention, Well being and Human Companies Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. mentioned his division’s dealing with of measles instances, together with the outbreak in Texas must be a “mannequin for the remainder of the world.”
Kennedy mentioned it is because instances have exploded extra drastically in Europe — although he did not supply specifics on what he thinks has labored within the U.S. response.
“I’d examine it to what’s taking place in Europe,” he mentioned. “They’ve had 127,000 instances and 37 deaths. And so what we’re doing right here in the USA is a mannequin for the remainder of the world.”
Whereas the numbers Kennedy cited are practically correct when trying on the huge European area in 2024, and far increased than the 285 instances within the U.S. final yr, many elements make it tough to match that complete area to the U.S.
The U.S. at present has greater than 600 instances up to now this yr, most of these linked to an ongoing outbreak in Texas, the place two kids have died from the virus.
“It is deceptive to match the U.S. to your complete WHO European area, which spans 53 nations with extensive disparities in well being care entry, vaccination protection and surveillance techniques,” mentioned Dr. John Brownstein, an epidemiologist and chief innovation officer at Boston Youngsters’s Hospital, and an ABC Information contributor.
“The outbreaks in locations like Romania and Kazakhstan are driving the regional numbers, however if you slender the view to nations extra akin to the U.S., like these within the EU, the image is way nearer — and in some instances, higher — than what we’re seeing in Texas proper now,” Brownstein mentioned.
Well being Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. speaks throughout a press convention whereas visiting the Osher Heart for Integrative Well being on the College of Utah in Salt Lake Metropolis, Utah, April 7, 2025.
Jim Urquhart/Reuters, FILE
How does Europe actually examine?
The World Well being Group experiences the European area, which incorporates 53 nations in Europe and central Asia, had 127,350 measles instances and 38 deaths in 2024, based mostly on preliminary information obtained as of March 6 this yr. That is twice the quantity reported instances in 2023. Romania reported the best variety of instances within the area for 2024, with 30,692 instances, adopted by Kazakhstan with 28,147 instances.
This was the best case depend seen within the area since 1997. Romania reported the best variety of instances within the area for 2024, with 30,692 instances, adopted by Kazakhstan with 28,147 instances.
From the 30 nations within the European Union and European Financial Space (EU/EAA) which are extra akin to the U.S., there have been 3,973 measles instances in 2023 however that quantity grew steeply to twenty-eight,791 instances of measles from March 1, 2024 to Feb. 28, 2025, in keeping with the European Centre for Illness and Management.
Throughout this timeframe, Romania had 24,215 measles instances, adopted by 1,064 in Italy, 591 in Germany, 572 in France and 556 in Belgium.
About 86% of measles instances in EU/EAA nations in Europe had been amongst unvaccinated folks, 45% of instances had been in kids underneath 5 years outdated and about 30% of instances had been in folks aged 15 and older.
“If you examine the U.S. to nations with related well being techniques — like Germany or France — the dimensions of the present outbreak in Texas just isn’t meaningfully higher,” Brownstein mentioned.
Consultants have additionally been involved concerning the variety of measles deaths in the USA and ABC Information has reported a number of have mentioned they consider case counts are considerably increased than what’s being reported, regardless of RFK Jr. claiming “the expansion charges for brand new instances and hospitalizations have flattened,” in a publish on X.
“We expect these instances are undercounted,” Dr. Amesh Adalja, an infectious illness physician and senior scholar at Johns Hopkins Heart for Well being Safety mentioned at a Texas Division of State Well being Companies press convention on Tuesday. “If you’re listening to folks on the bottom say that is going to take a yr to include, that tells you that it is doing the other of flattening.”
“We all know that there is actually, on common, about one demise for each round 1,000 instances,” Dr. Craig Spencer, an affiliate professor of the follow of well being companies, coverage and follow on the Brown College Faculty of Public Well being, informed ABC Information. “We have already seen three deaths, which might make you believe you studied it is in all probability extra like 3,000 instances.”
“It feels very, very possible that the depend is increased than 500,” he mentioned, including, “It isn’t inconceivable for there to be three deaths amongst 500 instances, however statistically, one would count on extra instances for that variety of deaths.”
Now, greater than 600 folks within the U.S. have confirmed instances of measles this yr and three folks have died, which if correct is about 0.5% of instances, in keeping with information from the Facilities for Illness Management and Prevention.
This may be a lot increased than what was seen in Romania final yr, the place 18 folks died from measles out of greater than 30,000 instances, or about 0.06%. When trying on the complete European area, solely about 0.03% of individuals with measles died.
Bins and vials of the Measles, Mumps, Rubella Virus Vaccine at a vaccine clinic placed on by Lubbock Public Well being Division, March 1, 2025, in Lubbock, Texas.
Jan Sonnenmair/Getty Pictures
Brownstein mentioned this reveals “that even smaller outbreaks might be deadlier when vaccination charges are low.”
Drivers of low vaccination charges are going to be variable throughout totally different areas and populations. Researchers have studied particular elements in Romania’s excessive case counts the place WHO estimates vaccine protection with two MMR doses to solely be 62% in 2023.
They recognized migratory patterns, rising vaccine hesitancy amongst mother and father and lack of well being care suppliers as important drivers of vaccination charges plummeting after 2010 as a result of lack of curiosity, entry, provide and employees.
WHO information reveals in Europe, measles vaccine charges and insurance policies are variable by nation and solely 4 nations have a 95% vaccination fee or increased with two doses of the measles, mumps and rubella (MMR) vaccine: Hungary, Malta, Portugal and Slovakia.
On common throughout many European nations, charges for one dose of the MMR vaccine vary from about 85% to 95% and 75% to 90% for 2 doses, however fluctuate. Within the U.S., about 91% of kids have had one dose of the MMR vaccine by the point they flip two years outdated and 92% of teenagers have had the beneficial two doses, in keeping with the CDC.
Some nations in Europe together with Germany, France and Italy have obligatory necessities for measles vaccination or immunity for college enrollment, however mother and father could possibly decline the vaccine in different nations the place it is just beneficial however not mandated comparable to Belgium, Romania and the Netherlands.
Jade A. Cobern, MD, MPH, is board-certified in pediatrics and common preventive medication, and is a medical fellow of the ABC Information Medical Unit. Cheyenne Haslett and Mary Kekatos additionally contributed to this report.
