Well being and Human Providers Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. appeared to suggest in latest days that the measles outbreak in western Texas was slowing down.
In a publish on X on Sunday, Kennedy remarked on the second loss of life linked to the outbreak, which occurred in an unvaccinated school-aged baby.
About 10 minutes later, Kennedy edited the publish so as to add that the curve has been flattening since early March, when he began sending in reinforcements from the Facilities for Illness Management and Prevention — supplying clinics with vaccines and different drugs.
“Since that point, the expansion charges for brand spanking new circumstances and hospitalizations have flattened,” he wrote.
Nevertheless, knowledge from the Texas Division of State Well being Providers confirmed that circumstances are rising, with extra counties in western Texas reporting infections.
Katherine Wells, director of public well being for Lubbock, Texas, mentioned final week that public well being officers had been projecting “a year-long timeline for management of the outbreak.”
“That is going to be a big outbreak, and we’re nonetheless on the facet of accelerating variety of circumstances, each resulting from unfold and elevated testing capability,” she mentioned.
Public well being specialists advised ABC Information they’re skeptical that the curve is flattening and imagine that circumstances linked to the outbreak usually are not solely rising, however doubtless a lot increased than the official case rely.
“This outbreak is way from below management — even when the curve begins to flatten, we nonetheless face main dangers in under-vaccinated communities throughout the nation,” mentioned Dr. John Brownstein, an epidemiologist and chief innovation officer, in addition to an ABC Information contributor. “With so many pockets of low vaccination, we’re nonetheless on the point of widespread, sustained transmission except pressing motion is taken.”
Well being and Human Providers Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr., proper, arrives at Reinlander Mennonite Church after a second measles loss of life, April 6, 2025, in Seminole, Texas.
Annie Rice/AP
Possible extra circumstances in Texas
As of Tuesday, there have been 505 confirmed measles circumstances in Texas, in accordance with DSHS knowledge.
Between March 28 and April 4, DSHS confirmed 81 circumstances — one of many highest totals confirmed in a single week because the first circumstances had been recognized in late January. The Texas Division of State Well being Providers doesn’t make hospitalization charges out there to the general public.
“We all know that there have been extra circumstances, at the very least sustained circumstances, over the previous couple months. We all know that the scale of the outbreak has jumped fairly considerably over the previous month,” Dr. Craig Spencer, an affiliate professor of the follow of well being providers, coverage and follow on the Brown College College of Public Well being, advised ABC Information.
ABC Information has requested a replica of the information that Kennedy is referring to when making claims concerning the curve flattening, however has not but heard again from the HHS.
“We do not have a full image of what is occurring on the bottom due to our incapability to succeed in some communities. And so, I definitely wouldn’t really feel assured saying that we’ve plateaued,” he added.
Spencer mentioned one cause he isn’t comfy saying the outbreak has plateaued in Texas is that he believes the variety of circumstances is probably going an undercount.
Yale College of Public Well being
Texas DSHS mentioned any circumstances reported after March 16 are incomplete, and extra circumstances could also be reported.
There have been two confirmed deaths linked to the Texas outbreak and a 3rd loss of life is being investigated in New Mexico in an unvaccinated grownup who examined constructive after dying.
“We all know that there is actually, on common, about one loss of life for each round 1,000 circumstances,” Spencer mentioned. “We have already seen three deaths, which might make you observed it is most likely extra like 3,000 circumstances.”
“It feels very, very doubtless that the rely is increased than 500,” he mentioned, including, “It isn’t not possible for there to be three deaths amongst 500 circumstances, however statistically, one would count on extra circumstances for that variety of deaths.”
Dr. Megan Ranney, dean of the Yale College of Public Well being, advised ABC Information there’s threat in saying the circumstances have flattened when the information might counsel in any other case. Specifically, she mentioned is frightened that individuals could also be dissuaded from getting examined or handled.
“We all know that many individuals are avoiding formal medical care and subsequently testing. There may be all the time a delay in reporting even when persons are examined,” Ranney mentioned. “I fear that persons are afraid to get measles examined or to convey their child in for care.”
“My different fear is we nonetheless need individuals to take prevention measures and, after all, we all know the vaccine just isn’t solely the most secure manner, but additionally the simplest option to stop an infection with measles,” she continued.
Kennedy promotes catch-all remedies not supposed for all measles circumstances
In a second social media publish on Sunday night, Kennedy shared that he had met the households of the 2 school-aged kids who died of measles in Texas, in addition to a 3rd household who reportedly had a daughter within the ICU for 3 weeks with measles.
Kennedy mentioned he additionally met with two physicians who’ve “handled and healed” about 300 kids contaminated with measles within the Mennonite group with aerosolized budesonide and clarithromycin.
A vial of the measles, mumps and rubella vaccine is on show on the Lubbock Well being Division, on Feb. 26, 2025, in Lubbock, Texas.
Mary Conlon/AP
Aerosolized budesonide is a steroid used to cut back irritation within the lungs, making it simpler to breathe. Clarithromycin is an antibiotic used to deal with bacterial infections.
“When you had been to go to any evidence-based therapy pointers, there’s nothing that claims you need to deal with sufferers with budesonide or clarithromycin,” Spencer mentioned. “Now these are drugs which have a broad suite of makes use of, and so I am not going to say that they’ve completely no indication for measles, or actually anything.”
He mentioned there are eventualities during which both remedy could also be utilized in a measles affected person, however it’s on a case-by-case foundation.
“I do not suppose that they are hurting anybody, however they’re most likely not serving to anybody,” he added. “They don’t seem to be in any respect instruments that I might attain to as my first, or actually even second, line of instruments that I might use in somebody presenting with signs in step with measles.”
In an interview with ABC Information Dwell on Monday, Dr. Peter Marks, the previous director of the Heart for Biologics Analysis and Analysis throughout the Meals and Drug Administration — who’s reported to have been compelled out — mentioned budesonide, clarithromycin and vitamin A — one other therapy endorsed by Kennedy — are neither preventatives nor “actual therapy” for all circumstances of measles.
He highlighted the significance of receiving the measles, mumps and rubella, or MMR, vaccine. The CDC at the moment recommends that individuals obtain two doses of the MMR vaccine, the primary at ages 12 to fifteen months and the second between 4 and 6 years previous. One dose is 93% efficient, and two doses are 97% efficient towards measles or practically 100% efficient towards dying of measles after contracting it.
Some individuals could also be in danger for an antagonistic response with any vaccine, so specialists say it is essential to debate the dangers and advantages with a well being care supplier.
“It must be a simple resolution, as simple as shopping for a automobile seat and strapping your child in,” Marks mentioned about getting a vaccine if eligible. “You’ll by no means drive with out your child strapped into their automobile seat. You recognize, in the event you had an 18-month-old, why would not you give that baby one thing that might stop your baby from dying of an an infection when there is a one in 1,000 probability in the event that they get measles, they might die from it?”
ABC Information’ Dr. Mark Abdelmalek contributed to this report.
