All of it comes right down to Pennsylvania.
That’s not an exaggeration.
If Kamala Harris loses Pennsylvania, Donald Trump is the forty seventh president of america.
Now you would say the identical about Michigan or Wisconsin, but it surely particularly appears {that a} Democratic candidate ought to have the ability to carry the Keystone State.
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And that’s why, for my part, Kamala ought to have picked Josh Shapiro, its in style governor.
I’ve nothing towards Tim Walz, of soccer coach fame, however I don’t see what he’s achieved for the ticket. There’s a purpose the marketing campaign hasn’t let him do any solo interviews – a stark distinction with JD Vance, who is consistently doing interviews and holding press conferences.
In actual fact, Vance now often takes reporters’ questions in entrance of supporters, who boo the journalists, generally even earlier than they begin talking.
We’ll discover out whether or not Walz can assume on his ft when he faces off towards Vance in tonight’s VP debate. Essentially the most beneficiant factor I can say is that the Coach will likely be rusty.
Let’s take a look at the newest numbers.
The Actual Clear Politics common has Trump main Harris by a miniscule margin, 48.1% to 47.9%, which in fact is a statistical tie.
At 538, the micro-margin in Pennsylvania is flipped, with Harris averaging 47.9% and Trump at 47.1%, one other tie.
Now think about that Shapiro, who’s extra of a reasonable liberal than the uber-progressive Walz, was the working mate. And let’s say Shapiro had introduced in one other 50,000 votes because the home-state man. You’ll be able to see the place that might tip the steadiness.
Kamala didn’t decide Josh for 2 causes. That they had a tough dialog when she interviewed him, with the governor insisting on an influential function if he have been to relinquish his present job. However so what? Presidents and their veeps typically don’t see eye to eye. She most popular the picture of Walz, hunter and fisherman, to the prospect of two East Coast attorneys.
However the extra vital purpose is extra troubling. Harris was below strain from the anti-Israel faction in her occasion to not faucet Shapiro, who’s Jewish and a robust supporter of the Jewish state.
So the vice chairman successfully handed veto energy to this minority faction, which mainly backs the Hamas terrorists who would wipe out Israel, and would have confronted every week or two of controversy consequently. I stated on the time this is able to be a world-class mistake if she misplaced Pennsylvania.
The explanation Harris has spent a lot time within the Pittsburgh space is that the western finish of the state is rather more conservative than the japanese part anchored by Philadelphia. Her objective is to carry down Trump’s margin in part of the state that he’ll simply win.
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One drawback Harris faces proper now’s that she makes little information. By choosing “pleasant” interviewers, similar to MSNBC’s Stephanie Ruhle, who has trashed Trump as a hazard to democracy, she avoids robust questions and followups.Â
Visiting the Mexican border was a wise transfer, not simply because Trump has a significant lead on immigration, however as a result of Harris broke into the information cycle, the place photographs can depend greater than phrases, and tried to place herself as harder than Joe Biden on the difficulty.
In any other case, I’m simply listening to chunks of her stump speech in response to questions, beginning with how her mom raised her. Repetition is vital in politics, however in case you don’t throw in a number of new traces, the press is left with out a headline.
In the meantime, Trump over the weekend known as Harris “mentally impaired,” saying Biden simply bought outdated however she was born that manner. He additionally stated Harris ought to be impeached, and possibly prosecuted, for the best way she helped run the nation.
Now that’s traditional Trump. By utilizing over-the-top rhetoric, he sparks a media debate about whether or not he’s gone too far, and that debate revolves across the phrases “Kamala” and “mentally impaired.”Â
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Harris has correctly not responded to each Trump jab. However bear in mind, Trump advantages from damaging protection as a lot as optimistic protection as a result of he’s driving the information agenda.
Right here’s a pool report from Harris at a West Coast political occasion over the weekend: “She then switched her remarks to speaking concerning the want for complete immigration reform. VP Harris remarks on the difficulty have been similar to her remarks in Arizona on Friday.” In different phrases, no information.
Take into consideration this: Trump has been completely pummeled by a hostile press corps, is a twice-impeached convicted felon and carries the burden of Jan. 6. Harris has been using a unprecedented wave of optimistic press, and but she’s slipped barely within the polls and is tied in Pennsylvania.
And there’s no query that if she loses there, the election is over.
