Jamie Lynch, our Senior Kind Analyst, picks aside each runner in a sizzling renewal of the Premier handicap at Newbury on Saturday, reside on Sky Sports activities Racing.
After a trio of renewals of 10 runners or fewer – this subject larger and higher – the standard is pulled up by the 152-rated Kandoo Child, making for a correct handicap with a spread of 26lbs. Alternatively, the sprinkling of novices carry the thriller and perhaps the mastery. Let’s look in depth at these declared.
1. Kandoo Child
Harry Cobden | Paul Nicholls
He is from the household of Politologue, which explains his growing expertise in addition to reverse rationalising the stamina doubts forward of the Coral Gold Cup, however not a little bit of it. As an alternative, he regarded such a robust stayer that he booked his ticket for the Grand Nationwide, for which that is brazenly a upkeep race, nevertheless it’s additionally a £100k race and one during which he was second final yr.
The hooked up string is singular slightly than plural, regarding the grander plan, however the evidential case is persuasively robust, given his profile, his progress and his proficiency on a monitor the place his kind figures learn 2121.
2. Iroko
Jonjo O’Neill Jr | Oliver Greenall and Josh Guerriero
This high-profile, high-alert handicapper would undoubtedly be favorite for this have been he coming this fashion, however his first choice is Kelso.
3. Midnight River
Cieran Gethings | Dan Skelton
You get the sensation that he is a type of from the secure who’ll be hitting a spring goal with laser-like precision, as he has shortly but quietly turn into very effectively handicapped – now 6lb decrease than when successful on the Grand Nationwide Pageant in 2023.
He is solely raced solely 5 occasions since then, and two of these have been the Coral Gold Cup. The drier the bottom – and the shorter his value – the higher his probability of springing again to life.
4. Le Milos
Harry Atkins (7) | Dan Skelton
Small subject, veterans’ firm, Harry Skelton aboard, and a sub-140 mark: all of the the explanation why he efficiently revived at Warwick are all absent in as we speak’s larger and higher subject, for all he gained the Coral Gold Cup round right here as soon as upon a time.
In idea, Harry Atkins’s 7lb declare reduces the recalibration however, in observe, Le Milos is again in an atmosphere which appears an excessive amount of for him today, liable to revert to his imply of underdelivering within the end.
5. Saint Segal
David Noonan | Jane Williams
It is like he went to a motivational seminar at the beginning of December as a result of he has reworked from a cowardly, clumsy chaser right into a fiery, centered front-runner. This was articulated by his course and distance win in a small subject however accentuated by his second in a warmer handicap at Musselburgh (Scottish Champion Chase) the place he was overhauled solely by fast-forward novice The Kalooki Child.
The query is whether or not the current Saint Segal is a model or a conversion, however the outdated strain factors will certainly be felt in a race of this nature.
6. Gentle N Strike
Jack Tudor | Emma Lavelle
Gentle N Strike had pretensions for high honours within the lesser league of summer time leaping again in 2023 however spent 18 months on the sidelines and his two runs again (over hurdles) have been devoid of any encouragement in anyway, the metaphorical elevate descending, whereas his chase mark has caught on the next flooring.
7. Paint The Dream
Conor Brace | David Brace
He completed third on this race in 2023 for Fergal O’Brien, off 158 should you do not thoughts, however that version was a lot thinner and he was a lot better than he’s now on the age of 11 – a shadow of his former self, since an extended lay-off.
8. Vincenzo
Dylan Johnston (3) | Sam Thomas
His boutique secure has a 27 per cent strike-rate in handicap chases this season, together with two Premier Handicaps with Al Dancer and Katate Dori. That’s the upbeat undercoat for portray a optimistic image of the novice Vincenzo, whose solely defeat over fences got here by the hands of Kalif Du Berlais who contested a Grade 1 on his subsequent begin.
Vincenzo is heading for City Moor
His wins both aspect have been by narrowish margins however inherit to that was the two-mile journey (traded far larger in-running each occasions), when he is prepared and in a position for longer distances, getting the prospect to flex that muscle now, rising the advance vary all of the extra. As such, he is a should for any shortlist.
9. Kotmask
Caoilin Quinn | Gary and Josh Moore
Effectively used to those races by now however his detached leaping has dragged him down right here and there, particularly final time, and Newbury is rather less daunting in that regard than his second residence of Ascot. He has acquired the instruments and the expertise to make his presence felt if his leaping holds up however that’s turning into an more and more massive ‘if’ from a punting perspective, and the secure nonetheless is not firing on all cylinders.
10. Billytherealbigred
Toby Wynne (3) | Oliver Greenall & J Guerriero
Uncommon document of improvement for the size and breadth of his enchancment, elevating his recreation once more final month regardless of assembly with defeat for the primary time in 5 accomplished begins for the yard, in a traditionally-strong novices’ handicap at Cheltenham, going along with his trademark alacrity and accuracy earlier than collared late by his irregular stablemate Jagwar.
Solely a 5-y-o and solely 3 lb increased for Cheltenham, trying lenient, whereas Toby Wynne is 2/2 on him, however these are completely different dimensions for Billytherealbigred to deal with, in opposition to the larger boys in open firm and a double-figure subject.
11. Beau Balko
Ben Bromley (5) | Paul Nicholls
This horse is dependable and resilient however his sequence of seconds – together with when 11 lengths adrift of Saint Segal over course and distance – solely emphasises that he is reached his ceiling. He is was right into a bootless battle as soon as extra off 129, however in even deeper this time.
Beau Balko goes to publish
It goes nearly with out saying that if Paul Nicholls is to increase his document to 10 on this race then it is likelier to be courtesy of Kandoo Child.
12. Scarface
Brendan Powell | Joe Tizzard
Has been holding his personal however a winless second season over fences slightly begs the query of if not earlier than then why now? No less than he is coming in off his longest break of the marketing campaign, mandatory given his weak end at Ascot, and he is acquired the sport to seize a spot even when it is onerous to envisage him successful.
13. Spyglass Hill
Adam Wedge | F Brennan
Flirted with Graded firm in a number of seasons with Henry de Bromhead however nearing retirement now and final seen within the Foxhunters’ at Aintree nearly a yr in the past, since when he is switched stables once more.
14. Tedley
Jamie Brace (5) | Nigel Twiston-Davies
Acquired in his chase wins at the beginning of the winter off marks within the teenagers and has been pot searching ever since, again in a handicap this time (after the Kingmaker) however biting off greater than he can chew on this grade.
15. Prince Quali
Harry Kimber | Robert Walford
Energetic longshot. Probably the greatest-operating stables this season on the quiet and, although Prince Quali has maintained requirements slightly then moved up, this will probably be his first go round 2½m in Britain, crying out for it along with his placings at Ascot (proper behind Kotmask and Scarface) and Haydock earlier than an uncharacteristic early departure final week. There’s additionally an opportunity that the first-time cheekpieces give him an additional edge.
16. Booster Bob
Sean Bowen | Olly Murphy
A case of 1 step ahead and two again in his stuttering chase profession up to now, making him onerous to weigh up, nevertheless it’s protected to say that I did not count on to rock up in a high-end handicap like this at his stage, one thing of an announcement of religion. Has principally stored to 2m and his two makes an attempt at this form of journey over hurdles amounted to nothing.
Jamie Lynch’s verdict
Within the 20-year historical past of the Greatwood Gold Cup solely three novices have gained it. A shocking statistic, however there is a energy pair this time of Billytherealbigred and Vincenzo, with choice for the latter due to what he might need saved up his sleeve for the journey. Of the outsiders, Prince Quali has extra upside than most and could also be value an each-way play.
