The historic nature of Maharashtra’s Meeting outcomes could be extra seen if we put aside the dramatic numbers and stunning turn-around from the Lok Sabha final result. Little question, the numbers are daunting — successful 132 seats out of the lower than 150 contested, or pushing the rivals 14 proportion factors backward, are not any imply feats. However allow us to have a look at the key shifts this consequence will result in.
If one begins tracing the historical past of how Congress misplaced management over states, Maharashtra might be one of many final ones. Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka got here out of Congress dominance within the early Nineteen Eighties. At the moment, Congress in Maharashtra was nonetheless within the saddle, although the dominance had virtually change into dilapidated by then. The celebration went on to win 1985 handsomely and 1990 with hiccups. In a way, this state was “the final fortress of Congress dominance” (to borrow the title of a e book by Palshikar and Rajeshwari Deshpande, 2020).
The stronghold of Congress was such that even after its defeat in 1995, and a cut up in 1999, the celebration was not totally pushed out of the political area, as has occurred in lots of different states. For 15 years, it went on to rule the state albeit with robust competitors from the BJP-Shiv Sena. A serious flip occurred in 2014, occasioned by the collapse of Congress nationally and the entry of Narendra Modi on the nationwide scene. Maharashtra was swept off its toes in 2014: The BJP received 23 out of the 24 seats it contested. Within the shadow of this overwhelming victory, the BJP additionally got here near a majority within the following meeting elections — for the primary time since 1990, with out the Shiv Sena: 122 seats with virtually 28 per cent votes. The method of creating allies redundant had begun.
Wanting again at 2014, it must be famous that the shift in state politics commenced at that time. After 1990, for the primary time, a celebration had come so near a transparent majority by itself. It was at that second that Maharashtra virtually reached the brink of a brand new political section — its second dominant celebration system below the BJP. The outcomes of the 2024 Meeting ballot have re-energised that course of and brought off from the place 2014 left the state.
The victory of the BJP, and greater than that, the demoralising efficiency of its opponents, has ensured that the shift that was arrested or slowed down after 2014 will now take form in a quick and livid method.
When one celebration grows in dominance disproportionately, different Opposition events are compelled to seek for potential coalitions. The MVA might want to keep in mind this. Even when it will get dismantled, the politics of the Opposition will essentially start with cooperation among the many opposition forces. Within the case of the MVA, the issue is that there are not any clearly demarcated sub-regions of their respective power. So, each effort of coming collectively is fraught with the worry of dropping their very own turf with a view to make room for others.
Secondly, it additionally means efforts by smaller events to cross the brink of viability. Most such events are sectarian or localised or each. However their self-perception is that they’re the true house owners of the Opposition area. So, they may neither collaborate with the MVA nor be capable of carve out their very own political, regional or social area.
Three, we will witness a three-fold dominance of the BJP. If one imagines three axes of energy — political, financial and social — then the BJP’s dominance in the meanwhile is the strongest on the political axis. However concurrently, within the financial sphere, the BJP has glorious equations with corporates and the center courses, due to Modi. Within the social realm, the danger of social strife on caste strains is there. The BJP will search to neutralise it by means of cultural dominance of the Hindutva rhetoric. Thus, the BJP will intention at replicating the “Gujarat mannequin” of total dominance. That’s the place the BJP’s dominance might be totally different from the Congress dominance Maharashtra had seen earlier.
The templates adopted in Gujarat, MP and UP might be utilized in Maharashtra: Contemptuous remedy of the Opposition, full-throated repression of dissent and full management of the social sphere. What students have described because the “party-society” has already been practised in Gujarat. Maharashtra will observe go well with. The Public Security Invoice that the state authorities withdrew earlier, the monitoring of inter-religious marriages, stricter vigilance over free motion of younger ladies, formally supported ghettoisation of Muslims, suppression of dissent and, above all, occupying your complete cultural area, are a few of the instructions through which this “party-society” mannequin will evolve.
Already, a lot of the state’s wealthy cultural legacy has been hijacked and squeezed into the Hindutva body — Shivaji Maharaj has been de-historicised to transform him into an instrument of masculine hatred of Muslims. The Warkari or Bhakti sampraday of the state had caved in way back, however of late it has change into an lively drive for cultural and political motion legitimising Hindutva. The Ambedkar legacy has been tamed by the lodging of Ambedkarite leaders or the inexplicable politics of a few of them. In the course of the previous 10 years, the social, cultural and academic fields have been captured by the BJP. With the new-found governmental power, that undertaking will acquire momentum.
However crucial hallmark of a party-society based on one-party dominance is the lack of the Opposition to be imaginative. This was evidenced of their belated announcement of welfare schemes much like the BJP. In days to return, this might be seen of their cynical however unfruitful pursuit of the Maratha reservation problem. Until they bring about out another imaginative and prescient of social and financial insurance policies, the Opposition will solely be feeding into the BJP’s dominance.
Congress in Maharashtra has lengthy ceased to have preventing spirit. Sharad Pawar’s politics principally confines itself to utilizing networks somewhat than concepts, though he alone has the flexibility to think about a broader social and political coalition. Uddhav Thackeray, ever since he turned the boss within the Shiv Sena, has uncared for the duty of redefining Marathi id and extra lately has failed to tell apart how his espousal of Hindu pleasure is totally different from the BJP’s Hindutva.
Such stagnation of motion and pondering is definitely the limitation of Maharashtra’s political actors however, greater than that, it represents the general results of the politics of single-party dominance. These limitations make the BJP’s dominance stronger and open up a number of processes of shift and realignment within the politics of Maharashtra.
The author, based mostly at Pune, taught political science
