ISIS more and more unopposed following US withdrawal from Afghanistan, collapse of Syria

The menace posed by the Islamic State has as soon as once more hit the headlines following the New Yr’s Day assault on a crowded avenue in New Orleans on Wednesday by a person who could have ties to the terrorist community.

Shamsud-Din Jabbar, a U.S.-born citizen who lived in Texas and an Military Veteran, drove a pickup truck with an ISIS flag right into a crowd of individuals on Bourbon Road, killing at the very least 15 folks and injuring dozens of others.

Nevertheless, the FBI has not confirmed his direct “affiliation” or “affiliation” with the notorious terrorist community which has been increasing throughout the globe in recent times, significantly in areas just like the Sahel in Africa, regardless of the 2019 assertion that the terrorist community had been “defeated.”

Legislation enforcement officers from a number of companies work the scene on Bourbon Road after at the very least 15 folks have been killed when an individual allegedly drove into the group within the early morning hours of New Yr’s Day on Jan. 1, 2025 in New Orleans. (Michael DeMocker/Getty Photos)

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“Claims of the Islamic State defeat, identical to claims of the defeat of al Qaeda, are untimely,” Invoice Roggio, senior fellow with the Basis for Protection of Democracies and editor of the Lengthy Battle Journal, informed Fox Information Digital. “These teams could have setbacks, however they’re persistent. 

“The Islamic State poses a menace from Afghanistan. It has a big community in Africa, significantly within the Sahel and in East Africa, in Somalia. And its community in Iraq and Syria persists,” he added. 

Whereas the FBI has not confirmed that the New Orleans attacker was straight concerned in ISIS, experiences have steered he was apparently sympathetic to the terrorist community and “pledged allegiance to ISIS” in a collection of movies posted to his Fb web page, in keeping with The New York Instances. 

The FBI has not but launched a motive for the assault, and Roggio defined that this incident is unlikely to point there’s a “resurgence” of ISIS, although the safety professional did spotlight that more and more the terrorist community is discovering itself up towards much less resistance in areas the place it was beforehand opposed. 

The 2021 withdrawal from Afghanistan and the autumn of the Bashar al-Assad regime in Syria final month to the al Qaeda-derived group dubbed Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham left safety vacuums within the Center East and South Asia – much like what contributed to the rise of ISIS following the U.S. withdrawal from Iraq. Safety specialists have warned ISIS and different terrorist networks might use these energy gaps. 

Folks wave weapons within the air as they collect to have fun the autumn of the Syrian regime in Umayyad Sq. on Dec. 8 in Damascus, Syria. (Ali Haj Suleiman/Getty Photos)

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ISIS-Okay – the regional affiliate of the terrorist group that originated in Iraq and Syria – garnered worldwide consideration in August 2021 when it attacked Afghans fleeing the Taliban takeover amid the U.S. withdrawal and used a suicide bombing to kill 13 American service members and a few 170 Afghan civilians.

The Taliban takeover prompted concern that Afghanistan would turn out to be a protected haven for terrorists like Taliban allies al Qaeda, the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan and different jihadi teams, although there was additionally concern that the brand new governing physique in Afghanistan could be unable to oppose ISIS-Okay.

ISIS-Okay has largely been unable to considerably thrive in Afghanistan following the autumn of the democratic authorities and the withdrawal of U.S. forces, however it is usually now not as fervently opposed. 

“The Taliban and the Islamic State are enemies. The Taliban goes after the Islamic State even whereas we’re not there – that does not make them a counter-terrorism associate, however now they do not have the twin menace towards them – the U.S. concentrating on the Islamic State and the Taliban concentrating on the Islamic State – they’ve better freedom of motion,” Roggio mentioned.  

A fighter of the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) holds an ISIL flag and a weapon on a avenue within the metropolis of Mosul, June 23, 2014. (Reuters Photograph)

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The safety professional mentioned that in relation to Afghanistan and the threats posed towards the U.S. and its Western allies, the Taliban and al Qaeda stay a better menace than ISIS, although he emphasised that ISIS does more and more have “extra space to function.”

“The Assad regime was an enemy of the Islamic State,” Roggio mentioned. “One of many Islamic State’s enemies has been taken off the board, and subsequently it is going to give ISIS extra space to regenerate energy in an space the place it already has a big presence.”

Nevertheless, there’s a third space the place ISIS has sturdy roots and the place it might see a resurgence ought to the U.S. once more pull troops from the realm. 

The Biden administration in September introduced that, in coordination with the Iraqi authorities, the U.S. will finish its army mission in Iraq to fight the Islamic State by 2026. The transfer was met with fast concern from safety specialists who argued that ISIS stays a high menace to the U.S., and it might additional endanger American troopers nonetheless combating the terrorist community in Syria. 

Specifics on the troop drawdown stay unclear, and plans to renegotiate a change to the withdrawal plans following the collapse of the Assad regime and the ambiguous state of Syria haven’t emerged. 

It stays additional unlikely that the incoming Trump administration will push to maintain U.S. troopers in Iraq regardless of the menace posed by ISIS given the president-elect’s push to withdraw U.S. forces from Afghanistan throughout his first time period. 

Service members a part of Operation Inherent Resolve stand in formation and salute the USA flag throughout a Memorial Day ceremony at Union III in Baghdad on Could 27, 2024. (U.S. Military)

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“The U.S. has to determine if it desires to stay in Iraq and Syria so as to counter the Islamic State and different goal teams,” Roggio mentioned. “And if it decides to remain, it must beef up [its] presence so as to deter threats from militia teams which have been attacking U.S. troops.

“The U.S. effort to maintain the Islamic State down is essential. With out the U.S. presence there, teams just like the Islamic State, will thrive given the lawlessness,” the safety professional added. “As dangerous because the Assad regime was, and it was a horrible regime, it did battle the Islamic State – so with out their presence, you’ve got one other terrorist group that’s in nominal management of enormous areas of Syria.

“As we realized in Afghanistan, you possibly can’t belief terrorists to battle different terrorists,” Roggio added. 

Fox Information Digital couldn’t attain the Trump transition crew for touch upon his plans concerning U.S. troops within the Center East.