Iran has opened a direct line of communication with rebels in Syria’s new management since its ally Bashar al-Assad was ousted, a senior Iranian official advised Reuters on Monday, in an try to “stop a hostile trajectory” between the nations. The lightning advance of a militia alliance spearheaded by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, a former al-Qaeda affiliate, marked one of many largest turning factors for the Center East in generations. Assad’s fall as president eliminated a bastion from which Iran and Russia exercised affect throughout the Arab world.
Hours after Assad’s fall, Iran stated it anticipated relations with Damascus to proceed primarily based on the 2 nations’ “far-sighted and smart strategy” and known as for the institution of an inclusive authorities representing all segments of Syrian society.
There’s little doubt about Tehran’s concern about how the change of energy in Damascus will have an effect on Iran’s affect in Syria, the lynchpin of its regional clout.
However there isn’t any panic, three Iranian officers advised Reuters, as Tehran seeks diplomatic avenues to determine contact with folks whom one of many officers known as “these inside Syria’s new ruling teams whose views are nearer to Iran’s”.
“The principle concern for Iran is whether or not Assad’s successor will push Syria away from Tehran’s orbit,” a second Iranian officers stated. “That could be a state of affairs Iran is eager to keep away from.”
A hostile post-Assad Syria would deprive Lebanese armed group Hezbollah of its solely land provide route and deny Iran its most important entry to the Mediterranean and the “entrance line” with Israel.
One of many senior officers stated Iran’s clerical rulers, dealing with the lack of an vital ally in Damascus and the return of Donald Trump to the white Home in January, have been open to partaking with Syria’s new leaders.
“This engagement is essential to stabilise ties and avoiding additional regional tensions,” the official stated.
CONTACTS WITH SYRIAN LEADERSHIP
Tehran has established contacts with two teams inside the brand new management and the extent of interplay will likely be assessed within the coming days after a gathering at Iran’s Supreme Nationwide Safety Council, a high safety physique, he stated.
Two of the Iranian officers stated Tehran was cautious of Trump utilizing Assad’s removing as leverage to accentuate financial and political stress on Iran, “both to pressure concessions or to destabilise the Islamic Republic”.
After pulling america out of Iran’s 2015 nuclear cope with six main powers in 2018, then-President Trump pursued a “most stress” coverage that led to excessive financial hardship and exacerbated public discontent in Iran. Trump is staffing his deliberate administration with hawks on Iran.
In 2020, Trump, as president, ordered a drone strike that killed Qassem Soleimani, Iran’s strongest army commander and mastermind of abroad assaults on U.S. pursuits and people of its allies.
“Iran is now solely left with two choices: fall again and draw a defensive position in Iraq or search a cope with Trump,” stated Ali Vaez of the Worldwide Disaster Group.
The autumn of Assad uncovered Tehran’s dwindling strategic leverage within the area, exacerbated by Israel’s army offensives in opposition to Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Palestinian militant group Hamas in Gaza. Iran’s clerical rulers spent billions of {dollars} propping up Assad in the course of the civil struggle that erupted in Syria in 2011 and deployed its Revolutionary Guards to Syria to maintain its ally in energy and keep Tehran’s “Axis of Resistance” to Israel and U.S. affect within the Center East.
Assad’s fall removes a important hyperlink in Iran’s regional resistance chain that served as an important transit route for Tehran to provide arms and fund its proxies and notably Hezbollah.
