After a bitterly contested presidential marketing campaign stuffed with unprecedented twists and turns, voters returned Donald Trump to the White Home after 4 years out of energy. In an election the place voters throughout the nation needed change, they selected Trump’s outsider attraction over Kamala Harris’ promise to “flip the web page” on the Trump period.
Trump’s victory was powered by his power on the financial system and immigration – two of voters’ prime issues. He was seen as a stronger chief than Harris in a time of turmoil, and voters remembered his presidency extra fondly than their evaluations of the present administration. Trump ran up the rating together with his base whereas narrowing conventional Democratic benefits amongst Black, Hispanic, and younger voters.
Harris got here shut in her bid to change into the primary girl elected to the presidency however was unable to make sufficient features within the ideological center of the citizens to offset defections amongst teams that historically vote Democratic.
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Preliminary knowledge from the Fox Information Voter Evaluation, a survey of greater than 110,000 voters nationwide, highlights the marketing campaign’s key dynamics.
Republican presidential nominee former President Donald Trump arrives at an election night time watch occasion on the Palm Seashore Conference Heart on Nov. 6, 2024, in West Palm Seashore, Florida. (Evan Vucci/AP)
Voters headed to the polls believing the nation was on the unsuitable monitor (70%, up from 60% who felt that method 4 years in the past) and in search of one thing completely different: most needed a change in how the nation is run, with roughly 1 / 4 in search of full and complete upheaval.
These in search of full change within the nation’s affairs voted for the previous president by a large margin.
Voters’ frustrations with Joe Biden’s administration have been a drag on Harris’ candidacy, as almost 6 in 10 disapproved of the job Biden has achieved.
Voters had rosier recollections of Trump’s time in workplace, with half approving of the job he did as president. 4 years in the past, 47% accredited of the job Trump had achieved.
This want for change was coupled with cut up views on the position of presidency. Barely greater than half felt the federal government must be doing extra to resolve the nation’s issues, a modest decline from 2020 (57%). Some 45% felt the federal government was doing too many issues higher left to the non-public sector.
Profile of the Vote
The nation’s deep divides – by gender, schooling, and space of residence – have been on vivid show. Males backed Trump by 10 factors, whereas ladies went for Harris by 8 factors. The 18-point gender hole was a contact wider than 2020 (17 factors).
In 2020, Trump gained males by 5 factors and Biden gained ladies by 12.
This divide was readily obvious in views of societal features for girls. Some 4 in 10 Trump supporters (43%) have been involved that society’s concentrate on features for girls had come on the expense of males; simply 14% of Harris felt that method. General, 29% have been involved.
Voters with out a faculty diploma went for Trump by 12 factors; college-educated voters went for Harris by 15 factors. Harris’ displaying amongst college-educated voters was 1 level worse than Biden’s 2020 displaying amongst college-educated voters, whereas Trump bettered his 2020 numbers amongst noncollege voters by 4 factors.
Voters headed to the polls believing the nation was on the unsuitable monitor (70%, up from 60% who felt that method 4 years in the past) and in search of one thing completely different: most needed a change in how the nation is run, with roughly 1 / 4 in search of full and complete upheaval. (Fox Information)
Trump had a selected benefit amongst White voters with out a diploma (+29 factors), thanks largely to his 38-point edge amongst noncollege White males.
Harris gained college-educated Whites by 8 factors and college-educated White ladies by 16 factors – each within the ballpark of Biden’s 2020 margins (+7 factors and +21 factors, respectively).
General, White voters backed Trump by 12 factors, precisely the identical as his 12-point benefit in 2020.
Trump ran up the rating in rural areas (+26 factors, up from a 22-point edge in 2020), whereas Harris ran barely behind Biden’s 2020 numbers in city areas (+28 factors, in comparison with Biden +33).
Suburban voters backed Harris by 6 factors, lower than Biden’s 10-point margin 4 years in the past. Suburban ladies, a significant supply of power for Biden (+19 factors), went closely for Harris (+16 factors) – however she misplaced floor amongst suburban males (Trump +5 factors, in comparison with +1 for Biden).
Whereas the election was, partly, in regards to the deep divides in American society, Trump’s success in attracting conventional Democratic constituencies was additionally a defining characteristic. He improved on his 2020 numbers amongst Hispanics (41%, +6 factors), Black voters (15%, +7 factors from 2020), and younger voters (46%, +10 factors).
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These rightward shifts have been notably notable amongst Hispanic males (+8 factors), Black males (+12 factors from 2020), and males underneath 30 (+14 factors).
Seniors, who backed Trump by 3 factors in 2020, have been as soon as once more within the former president’s column.
Trump gained Catholics by 9 factors and Protestants by 22 factors, whereas Harris held the sting amongst Jewish voters (+34 factors), Muslims (+32 factors), and the religiously unaffiliated (+40 factors).
White Catholics favored Trump by 20 factors, whereas White evangelical Christians broke for Trump by a large 59-point margin.
Voters equally divided alongside strains of non secular attendance: Trump gained those that usually attend providers (of any denomination) by 22 factors; Harris gained those that sometimes or by no means attend by 13 factors.
The vice chairman gained union households (+12 factors, down from Biden’s 14-point edge in 2020). As he did in 2020, Trump had a bonus amongst navy households (+13 factors) and gun proprietor households (+26 factors).
General, Trump’s strongest help got here from White evangelicals, rural voters, Whites with out a faculty diploma, conservatives, and males.
General, Trump’s strongest help got here from White evangelicals, rural voters, Whites with out a faculty diploma, conservatives and males. (Fox Information)
Harris’ greatest teams included college-educated ladies, Black voters, liberals, and concrete voters.
That every candidate efficiently appealed to their base is hardly stunning in a hyper-partisan political setting. Most Democrats (95%) backed Harris; barely fewer Republicans (92%) backed Trump.
Practically three-quarters of Republicans (73%) thought of themselves a part of the MAGA motion. And whereas the Harris marketing campaign touted endorsements from distinguished Republicans, she was unable to persuade sufficient non-MAGA Republicans to cross the aisle.
Simply 7% of voters self-identified as true independents, which means they don’t lean towards one occasion or one other. Harris had a 7-point benefit with this pivotal swing group, a decline from Biden’s 15-point edge in 2020.
Harris was capable of attraction to political moderates (+17 factors), although as soon as once more to a lesser diploma than Biden (+26 factors in 2020).
Most voters (89%) have been locked into their alternative of candidate for months, whereas the small variety of late deciders cut up evenly.
Views of the Candidates
In a time of home discord and worldwide battle, Trump was capable of undertaking vital power of character. A majority noticed him as a powerful chief; fewer felt that method about Harris.
Voters additionally believed Trump would capably deal with a disaster (54-48%) and had the appropriate coverage concepts (52%-47%).
Harris had benefits on private character (53% vs 43% for Trump), honesty (47%-41%), and having the psychological capability to function president (57%-52%). Equal numbers thought every would look out for folks like them (48%-48%).
However in an election the place voters needed change, barely extra thought Trump would convey constructive change (51%-48%).
Trump’s voters have been largely motivated by help for the previous president (79%) fairly than a vote in opposition to Harris (21%). Two-thirds of the vice chairman’s supporters (66%) described their vote as for her; 34% as in opposition to Trump.
On steadiness, voters had barely extra favorable views of Harris (48% favorable, 50% unfavorable) as an individual than Trump (47% favorable, 51% unfavorable). The identical was true on the vice-presidential stage: views of Tim Walz (43% favorable, 42% unfavorable) have been marginally higher than opinions of JD Vance (43% favorable, 45% unfavorable). Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who ended his third-party presidential bid and endorsed Trump in August, was only a contact much less fashionable than the 2 operating mates (42% favorable, 43% unfavorable).
Harris’ greatest teams included college-educated ladies, Black voters, liberals and concrete voters. (Fox Information)
Though he gained, Trump was unable to completely rehabilitate his picture throughout his day out of workplace: 4 years in the past, his favorable score was underneath water by 7 factors (46% favorable vs. 53% unfavorable).
The highlight was much less form to Biden, whose sharply unfavorable favorability score (40% favorable, 58% unfavorable) slipped considerably from 4 years in the past (50% favorable, 48% unfavorable).
Views of the candidates have been formed over the course of a condensed marketing campaign marked by a string of earthshaking occasions: the felony circumstances in opposition to Donald Trump, two assassination makes an attempt in opposition to the previous president, Biden withdrawing from the race after the primary debate, and Harris making an attempt to be the primary girl elected to the presidency.
Comparatively few voters (13%) mentioned the opportunity of electing the primary girl president was a very powerful issue to their vote. Harris gained these voters by a large margin – however a 3rd backed Trump to disclaim Harris the possibility to be the primary feminine commander-in-chief.
The picture of a bloodied and defiant Trump after the taking pictures in Butler, Pennsylvania, clearly galvanized his supporters, as 16% mentioned the makes an attempt have been a very powerful issue to their vote, they usually overwhelmingly backed Trump.
Voters had a net-positive view of the Secret Service (52% approve, 46% disapprove), although 62% of Trump voters disapproved of the job the group is doing.
Opinions of the Supreme Court docket (50% approve, 49% disapprove) have been evenly divided, whereas two-thirds disapproved of Congress (31% approve, 68% disapprove).
Views on the Points
As voters headed to the polls, they mentioned the financial system was far and away the highest subject dealing with the nation, adopted distantly by immigration and abortion.
4 in 10 voters (40%) mentioned inflation was the one most essential issue to their vote, they usually backed Trump by virtually two-to-one.
Harris countered Trump’s benefits on inflation and immigration by successful the 26% who targeted totally on abortion by 41 factors and the 50% who prioritized the way forward for American democracy by 27 factors.
Practically one-third (31%) mentioned freedom of speech was most essential to their vote, they usually went considerably extra narrowly for Trump (+8 factors).
As voters headed to the polls, they mentioned the financial system was far and away the highest subject dealing with the nation, adopted distantly by immigration and abortion. (Fox Information)
Voters had a unfavorable view of the financial system: almost two-thirds rated it as not good (40%) or downright poor (24%). 4 years in the past, within the depths of a coronavirus-induced recession, solely 14% mentioned financial circumstances have been poor.
In an indication of inflation’s financial toll, almost 3 times as many citizens mentioned they have been falling behind financially as mentioned they have been getting forward. In 2020, 13% mentioned they have been getting forward and 18% have been falling behind, with the bulk (69%) holding regular.
Those that mentioned they have been getting forward went for Harris by 42 factors and people holding regular backed her by a narrower 6-point unfold, whereas these falling behind went for Trump by 29 factors.
Practically all voters have been involved about with the ability to afford meals (91%, together with 67% very involved), and most have been fearful about paying for well being care (84%, 54% very involved), housing (79%, 51% very), and gasoline (79%, 48% very).
Voters most well-liked Trump to Harris by 9 factors on dealing with the financial system and by 5 factors on taxes.
Regardless of preferring Trump on the financial system, voters cut up on his signature financial coverage, growing tariffs on items imported to america.
Trump’s benefit on immigration was bigger than his edge on the financial system, as voters most well-liked him on the problem by 15 factors.
Over the course of the marketing campaign, Trump promised “the biggest home deportation operation in American historical past” – and succeeded in altering voters’ minds on the problem. 4 years in the past, 70% believed undocumented immigrants must be provided the possibility to use for authorized standing, whereas 29% felt they need to be deported. Voters’ views this yr have been markedly completely different.
Relatedly, two-thirds favored limiting the variety of immigrants allowed to use for asylum – a coverage adopted by each the Trump and Biden administrations, however extra carefully related to Trump.
Voters additionally thought Trump would do a greater job dealing with crime than Harris by 9 factors.
Harris’ benefits on local weather change (voters most well-liked her to Trump by 18 factors) and abortion (Harris +18 factors) outpaced Trump’s edge on immigration and crime.
All advised, almost two-thirds (63%) mentioned abortion must be authorized in all or most circumstances, up from the 59% who felt that method 4 years in the past, earlier than the repeal of Roe v. Wade.
The steadiness was nearer, nevertheless, when voters thought of a ban after 15 weeks: 46% in favor, 53% opposed.
In an indication of inflation’s financial toll, almost 3 times as many citizens mentioned they have been falling behind financially as mentioned they have been getting forward. In 2020, 13% mentioned they have been getting forward and 18% have been falling behind, with the bulk (69%) holding regular. (Fox Information)
A slim majority opposed banning gender-affirming medical remedies for minors who determine as transgender. The Trump marketing campaign spent hundreds of thousands of promoting {dollars} highlighting Harris’ previous help of gender-affirming look after the incarcerated.
Even when they didn’t agree together with her on transgender well being care, voters noticed Harris as higher capable of deal with well being care extra broadly (by 8 factors) and largely envisioned a extra energetic authorities position. Majorities felt the federal government must be extra concerned in reducing the value of prescription treatment (75%), eliminating medical debt (58%), and making certain people have medical health insurance protection (58%).
Barely fewer, 50%, mentioned the federal government must be extra concerned in making certain youngsters are vaccinated in opposition to frequent preventable illnesses, however simply 22% needed the federal government much less concerned in vaccinations.
Per week earlier than the election, Harris used a speech on the Ellipse in Washington – the positioning of the Jan. 6, 2021, Trump rally that preceded the violent occasions on the Capitol – to forged Trump as a risk to American democracy.
A 55% majority was involved Trump would transfer the nation nearer to authoritarian rule, whereas lower than half (46%) felt Harris posed an analogous risk.
Even so, majorities felt every candidate’s views have been too excessive.
Voters cut up over how a lot accountability Trump bore for the violence at america Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021.
Harris gained those that felt Trump had quite a lot of accountability by 86 factors, whereas Trump gained those that felt he was to not blame in any respect by 91 factors. The group within the center – who felt he was considerably liable for the violence – went for Trump by 40 factors.
Usually, barely extra voters felt the way in which Republicans speak about politics results in violence (56%) than felt the identical about Democrats (50%).
Regardless of unsubstantiated allegations of fraud within the 2020 election outcomes and Trump elevating related issues in regards to the 2024 contest, three-quarters of voters (75%) have been assured votes can be counted precisely on the nationwide stage, and much more have been assured of their state’s capacity to correctly depend the vote.
Whereas 31% lacked confidence that ineligible voters can be prohibited from voting, that was down from 35% who felt that method 4 years in the past. Few (9%) fearful that eligible voters can be prevented from casting ballots.
General, 89% felt each candidates have been obligated to just accept the outcomes of the election as soon as all of the votes have been counted and the inevitable authorized challenges have been resolved. The overwhelming majority of Harris voters (95%) and Trump voters (82%) felt there was an obligation to just accept the outcomes.
Trump countered Harris’ closing argument by suggesting Harris was too weak and untested to reply successfully in a disaster. Three-quarters thought Harris had been examined, and these voters felt she had delivered unfavorable outcomes by a 5-point margin. Most voters felt Trump had been examined, and barely extra felt he had delivered constructive outcomes than unfavorable ones.
The continuing violence within the Center East served to strengthen Trump’s argument about management in a disaster, as voters believed he would do a greater job dealing with the scenario.
Voters favored persevering with help to Israel to battle Hamas and Hezbollah by 9 factors, whereas favoring continued help to Ukraine in its battle in opposition to Russian aggression by 11 factors.
There was a marked shift in voters’ views of America’s position on the planet. Simply 20% needed the nation to take a extra energetic position in fixing the world’s issues, down from 37% who felt that method 4 years in the past. Roughly equal numbers mentioned the present strategy was about proper (38%) or most well-liked a much less energetic position (40%).
States
Georgia – Trump
Georgia swung again to the Republican column after Biden eked out a win by the slimmest of margins in 2020. With the margins so slender, the smallest shifts from 2020 would have been sufficient to flip the state to Trump. As an alternative, he received substantial motion amongst constituencies Democrats have been relying on to maintain the state blue.
Harris gained ladies by 5 factors, down from Biden’s 10-point benefit in 2020. She gained voters underneath age 30 by 9 factors, down from +19 for Biden. There was an analogous shift amongst Black voters, who type the spine of Democratic help within the Peach State: from Biden +86 factors to Harris +71 factors.
The shift amongst Black males was notably consequential, as they went for Harris by simply 51 factors after breaking for Biden by 76 factors 4 years in the past.
Harris was relying on a powerful efficiency within the suburbs to offset Trump’s power (+31 factors) with rural voters, however right here once more she got here up effectively wanting Biden’s mark: successful by simply 3 factors, a far cry from Biden’s 12-point win.
Trump was dominant with White voters with out a faculty diploma (78%) and White evangelical Christians (82%).
Trump appealed to voters throughout the state on financial grounds and located a prepared viewers, as large numbers mentioned they have been involved about paying for requirements like meals (93%), well being care (87%), gasoline (84%), and housing (83%).
Georgia voters trusted Trump over Harris on the financial system by 8 factors.
Voters most well-liked Harris by a wider margin (19 factors) on abortion. Harris highlighted the case of Amber Thurman, the Georgia mom who died ready for care after issues from an abortion tablet, for example of the harms of abortion bans.
Trump, alternatively, shone a highlight on Laken Riley, a nursing pupil allegedly killed by an unlawful immigrant whereas jogging in February. His message on immigration proved compelling, as voters favored him on the problem by 17 factors.
General, 54% would favor unlawful immigrants be deported, a considerable improve from the 32% who felt that method in 2020. Lower than half (44%) mentioned undocumented immigrants must be given the possibility to use for authorized standing.
Georgia was a focus for controversy after the 2020 election, however 8 in 10 voters have been assured this yr’s votes can be counted precisely.
North Carolina – Trump
Trump triumphed as soon as once more in North Carolina, as Republicans have now gained 10 of the final 11 presidential elections within the state. Barack Obama’s slender win in 2008 was the one Democratic victory since Jimmy Carter’s presidency.
Trump posted related outcomes to 2020 amongst White voters with out a faculty diploma (74%, vs 69% 4 years in the past), rural voters (63%, up 3 factors from 2020), and White evangelical Christians (87%, up 1 level from 2020).
That alone might need been a successful system – however shifts amongst Black voters and voters underneath age 30 pushed Trump excessive.
General, younger voters backed Harris by simply 8 factors after going for Biden by 16 factors 4 years in the past. The shift was solely powered by younger males, who backed the previous president by 16 factors. Ladies underneath 30 went for Harris by 25 factors.
The story was related amongst Black voters: Black ladies have been almost common of their help for Harris (93%), whereas 19% of Black males backed Trump, up from 6% in 2020.
General, 88% of Black voters picked Harris, down considerably from Biden’s 94%.
Harris gained political moderates, a bunch that voted for Biden by 26 factors, by simply 16 factors. She had hoped to run up the margins within the suburbs, however Trump greater than held his personal with 44% of the vote, up from 43% in 2020.
Simply 12% of North Carolina voters mentioned they have been getting forward financially, whereas virtually 3 times as many (31%) mentioned they have been falling behind – and these voters broke closely for Trump.
Some 42% cited the financial system as the highest subject dealing with the nation. Harris stored the race shut by almost battling Trump to a draw on who may higher deal with the financial system. General, voters trusted him over her by 5 factors.
Nonetheless, the 41% of voters who mentioned inflation was a very powerful issue to their vote broke for Trump by 31 factors, 65%-34%.
Within the governor’s race, Republican Mark Robinson confronted allegations of discriminatory remarks and inappropriate on-line habits. The scandals didn’t assist Republicans retake the governorship, which Democrats have now gained in 8 of the final 9 elections.
A majority (56%) held unfavorable opinions of Robinson, whereas greater than half (52%) seen Democrat Josh Stein favorably.
Trump endorsed Robinson, however a majority of voters mentioned the endorsement didn’t have an effect on their view of the previous president.
Methodology
The Fox Information Voter Evaluation is a survey of greater than 110,000 voters and 18,000 nonvoters nationwide. It contains greater than 4,000 interviews with voters in Arizona; 4,000 in Georgia; 3,700 in Michigan; 3,600 in Nevada; 3,600 in North Carolina; 4,000 in Pennsylvania; and three,900 in Wisconsin. The survey was performed from Oct. 28 by means of Nov. 5. Full methodological particulars can be found right here.
Get the newest updates from the 2024 marketing campaign path, unique interviews and extra at our Fox Information Digital election hub.
