Fox Information Ballot: Trump forward of Harris by 2 factors nationally

Former President Donald Trump is forward of Vice President Kamala Harris within the presidential contest, 50-48% based on a brand new Fox Information nationwide survey. That’s a reversal from final month when Harris had a slender benefit.

Harris, nonetheless, is forward by 6 factors amongst voters from the seven key battleground states and the candidates tie 49% every amongst voters in shut counties (the place the Joe Biden-Trump 2020 margin was lower than 10 factors). Trump’s benefit comes from a bigger share in counties he received by greater than 10 factors in 2020 (64-35%) than Harris has in counties Biden received by greater than 10 factors (58-39%).

That raises the query of whether or not the Democrat may win the Electoral School whereas dropping the nationwide well-liked vote. In 2000 and 2016, it was the GOP candidate who misplaced the favored vote however received the Electoral School.

Trump’s 2-point edge amongst doubtless voters falls properly inside the margin of error. The outcomes are an identical among the many bigger group of registered voters. Final month, Harris was up by 2 factors (50-48%) amongst each doubtless and registered voters. 

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This evaluation makes use of registered voter outcomes for apples-to-apples pattern comparisons.

These are Trump’s greatest numbers since Harris grew to become the nominee in August. The motion towards him primarily comes from a rise in assist amongst White voters, who now favor him by 10 factors, up from 4 factors final month and 6 factors in August. He’s additionally at file highs amongst voters 65 and over (49%) and people with a school diploma (48%).  

On the similar time, Harris receives her lowest assist since turning into the nominee amongst Black voters (67%), school graduates (49%), voters 65 and over (47%), and Whites with a school diploma (46%). 

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But on the floor, the race has stayed inside a small vary. In August, Trump was forward by 1 level, then Harris was up by 2 factors in September, and now Trump has a 2-point edge.  

“Total, the motion towards Trump is refined however probably consequential, particularly if he’s making beneficial properties amongst college-educated voters,” says Democratic pollster Chris Anderson, who conducts Fox Information surveys with Republican Daron Shaw. “Nonetheless, the race has been properly inside the margin of error for 3 months and the end result will doubtless hinge on which aspect is more practical at getting their voters to the polls versus persuasion.” 

The 20-point gender hole stays, as males again Trump and girls go for Harris.

Fox Information’ Energy Rankings have moved Michigan into the toss-up column, with each events making a powerful play for Rust Belt voters.  (Getty Photographs)

The excellent news for Harris is she will get 52% of latest voters (those that haven’t voted within the final two presidential elections) and 20% non-MAGA Republicans.

She can also be sustaining her double-digit lead over Trump amongst independents. That retains the competition shut, as every candidate receives backing from over 9 in 10 of their respective partisans. Then again, extra voters nationally determine as Republican than Democrat, and that’s what provides Trump the sting on this race.

Whereas the vp will get majority assist amongst Hispanics (52%) and voters underneath age 30 (54%), each numbers path President Joe Biden’s assist in 2020 based on the Fox Information Voter Evaluation election survey (6 in 10 from every group). 

For Trump, the excellent news is that he improved on each problem and character trait since September. And a majority remembers his time in workplace positively: 53% approve of the job he did as president. That’s 4 factors greater than he ever obtained whereas in workplace. Absolutely 93% of Republicans approve as do 74% of non-MAGA Republicans and 45% of independents.

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By comparability, at present solely 40% of voters approve of Biden’s job efficiency, which matches earlier lows in November 2023 and July 2022. 

Solely barely extra, 43%, approve of the federal government’s response to latest hurricanes, with most Democrats approving and most Republicans and independents disapproving.

The financial system continues to outrank all different points, as 40% say it’s crucial problem in deciding their alternative for president. Lower than half as many prioritize immigration and abortion, and much fewer cite points comparable to election integrity, well being care, local weather change, weapons, crime, and international coverage.

Seven in 10 view the financial system negatively. The 30% who charge situations positively is up from a low of 17% in 2022, and near the 33% who felt good in regards to the financial system on the finish of Trump’s time period. Half of Democrats give optimistic scores whereas majorities of Republicans and independents charge financial situations negatively.

Total, 44% say they’re falling behind financially, which is worse by 17 factors in comparison with three years in the past when solely 27% felt that method. Some 13% really feel they’re getting forward financially, whereas 43% are holding regular.  

Trump is seen as higher than Harris at dealing with the financial system (by 8 factors). He additionally bests her on immigration (+15), crime (+8), and weapons (+6). With the increasing battle within the Center East, it’s noteworthy Trump is favored by 13 factors on Israel and the battle, up from a 7-point lead in September. He has improved his standing on each problem in comparison with September, principally by small margins.

Extra voters belief Harris to deal with abortion (by 14 factors), local weather change (+12), and well being care (+8). The 2 candidates are rated about evenly on taxes (Trump +4), Supreme Courtroom nominations (Trump +1), and election integrity (Harris +3).  

“Typically, elections are easy,” says Shaw. “In three weeks, we could also be questioning how we thought the sitting vp would win when solely two in 5 voters assume the incumbent administration has accomplished job and just one in seven say they’re getting forward financially.”

Democrats and Republicans prioritize the problems otherwise, with the widest hole (28 factors) on immigration. There’s an 18-point hole on abortion and 15 factors on the financial system.

Some 12% of Democrats see Trump as higher at dealing with the financial system and 18% really feel that method about immigration, whereas 17% of Republicans belief Harris extra on abortion and local weather change.

Republican presidential nominee former President Donald Trump gestures at a marketing campaign rally on the Findlay Toyota Enviornment Sunday, Oct. 13, 2024, in Prescott Valley, Ariz.  (AP Picture/Evan Vucci)

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Trump is helped by extra voters saying they know an incredible deal about the place he stands on their precedence points than they do about Harris (57% vs. 44%). Absolutely 78% of Republicans really feel they know an incredible deal about Trump’s stances whereas 65% of Democrats say the identical about Harris.

Lower than half consider Trump (43%) and Harris (48%) are sincere and reliable, although Trump’s quantity is a private greatest. Voters are additionally extra prone to see him as a powerful chief (55% vs. 47% for Harris) and “as much as the job” of president (53% vs. 50%). Harris has an edge on having the psychological soundness to be president (54% vs. 52% for Trump), however right here once more Trump is at a private greatest. 

Harris has misplaced floor on some key traits. She was seen as higher at serving to the center class by 9 factors in September and that has declined to 4 factors now. Her 5-point edge on “combating for folks such as you” is now 2 factors, and her 6-point benefit on “defending private rights and freedoms” has disappeared because the candidates are tied. 

Voters additionally narrowly see Trump because the one bringing wanted change and defending free speech, each traits the place Harris was favored final month. 

The race continues to be extra about Trump than Harris, as most of his backers say their vote is for him moderately than in opposition to Harris. Amongst Harris supporters, two-thirds describe their vote as for her, however one-third say it’s in opposition to Trump. For comparability, in Might, almost half of Biden supporters mentioned their vote was primarily in opposition to Trump. Amongst Trump supporters, 80% say they’re voting for him moderately than in opposition to Harris (18%).

When saying in their very own phrases what one problem or issue was motivating them to get out and vote this 12 months, the highest response from Harris supporters is dislike of the opposite candidate, adopted by defending democracy, and abortion. For these backing Trump, the financial system and immigration are the highest two motivators, adopted by candidate traits. Amongst males, it’s dislike of the opposite candidate, the financial system, and traits (in that order), whereas for ladies the financial system and abortion tie as the highest motivator, adopted by candidate traits.  

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GREENVILLE, NORTH CAROLINA – OCTOBER 13: Democratic presidential nominee, Vice President Kamala Harris speaks throughout a marketing campaign rally on the Williams Enviornment at Minges Coliseum on the campus of East Carolina College on October 13, 2024 in Greenville, North Carolina. With 22 days till the election, latest polls in North Carolina present Harris and her opponent Republican presidential nominee, former President Donald Trump inside only a level or two on common, which can also be the case within the different six key battleground states. (Picture by Alex Wong/Getty Photographs) (Alex Wong/Getty Photographs)

Ballot-Pourri

– As pink and blue states develop into shades of purple it’s robust to know what degree of a well-liked vote suggests a win within the Electoral School. In 2016, Hillary Clinton acquired extra votes nationally by a 2-point margin however misplaced the Electoral School (by 77 electoral votes), whereas Joe Biden had a 4-point benefit within the well-liked vote and received the Electoral School (by 74). 

– About one-third of voters total and one-third of girls say Harris turning into the primary feminine president issues to their vote. Among the many 17% saying it issues an incredible deal, 80% again Harris.

– About 3 in 10 voters say they test information a number of occasions a day and so they favor Trump by 10 factors. On the different finish of the spectrum, 1 in 10 say they don’t take note of information, and these disengaged voters favor Trump by 16 factors. The 57% who comply with information frequently however not consistently again Harris by 6 factors.

– Most of every candidate’s backers really feel sure of their vote, and two-thirds of each Harris’ and Trump’s supporters say they’re “extraordinarily” motivated to vote. 

Performed October 11-14, 2024 underneath the path of Beacon Analysis (D) and Shaw & Firm Analysis (R), this Fox Information survey contains interviews with a pattern of 1,110 registered voters randomly chosen from a nationwide voter file. Respondents spoke with dwell interviewers on landlines (129) and cellphones (719) or accomplished the survey on-line after receiving a textual content (262). Outcomes primarily based on each the total registered voter pattern and the subsample of 870 doubtless voters have a margin of sampling error of ±3 share factors. Sampling error related to outcomes amongst subgroup is greater. Along with sampling error, query wording and order can affect outcomes. Weights are typically utilized to age, race, schooling, and space variables to make sure the demographics of respondents are consultant of the registered voter inhabitants. Sources for growing weight targets embody the American Neighborhood Survey, Fox Information Voter Evaluation, and voter file information. Doubtless voters are primarily based on a probabilistic statistical mannequin that depends on previous vote historical past, curiosity within the present election, age, schooling, race, ethnicity, church attendance, and marital standing.

Get the most recent updates from the 2024 marketing campaign path, unique interviews and extra at our Fox Information Digital election hub.

Fox Information’ Victoria Balara contributed to this report.