The beautiful collapse of Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria has despatched shock waves all through the area and past, marking a dramatic turning level after almost 14 years of civil conflict. Assad’s rule, lengthy sustained by Russia and Iran, has come to an finish, leaving his former patrons scrambling to handle the fallout. The implications for these two powers, in addition to for the broader regional and international panorama, are profound.
Russia’s involvement in Syria was by no means nearly Assad, specialists say. Securing a foothold within the Center East was a cornerstone of Moscow’s technique, with the Khmeimim Air Base and Tartus naval facility serving as important belongings for projecting energy. Nevertheless, with Assad now gone, Russia’s belongings in Syria are in danger.
Rebekah Koffler, strategic army intelligence analyst and writer of “Putin’s Playbook,” emphasised the importance. “Syria has been a key theater within the broader proxy battle between Russia and the U.S. dropping Assad represents a strategic defeat for Russia, costing them vital bases within the Center East and additional stretching their army sources as they proceed preventing in Ukraine.”
TRUMP RESPONDS AFTER REBELS OVERTAKE SYRIA, OUSTING LONGTIME DICTATOR: ‘ASSAD IS GONE’
Syrian opposition fighters take away a Syrian flag from an official constructing in Salamiyah, east of Hama, Syria, on Saturday Dec. 7, 2024. (AP Photograph/Ghaith Alsayed)
Ksenia Svetlova, a senior non-resident fellow on the Atlantic Council, described the fallout as, “Russia has been uncovered for what it actually is- an influence that overpromises however underdelivers. They got here to Syria with grand ambitions, however other than serving to Assad survive by joint efforts with Iran and Hezbollah, they achieved little. The post-war reconstruction by no means started, and with Russia now centered on Ukraine, Syria turned a secondary precedence. Now, Russia has deserted Assad, revealing itself as an unreliable associate.”
She mentioned this failure sends a message to Moscow’s allies. “Within the Center East, Russia now appears to be like weak in comparison with the US. Syrians are shocked that Moscow left ‘Child Assad,’ because the regime opponents name him, to break down, whereas the U.S. has demonstrated power by standing firmly with Israel in its time of want.”
Russian President Vladimir Putin, proper, and Syrian President Bashar al-Assad go to the Hmeymim Air Base in Latakia Province, Syria, on Dec. 11, 2017. (RUSSIA-FLIGHTS/ Sputnik/Mikhail Klimentyev/ by way of REUTERS/File Photograph)
The autumn of Assad highlights Syria’s position as a battleground within the U.S.- Russia proxy conflict, as Koffler defined. “Earlier than Assad’s fall, President Trump reportedly referred to as Putin to de-escalate tensions, however as a substitute, Putin doubled down by escalating his nuclear doctrine, signaling a refusal to again down. Now that Assad, one in every of Putin’s key allies, has misplaced Syria, the steadiness of energy shifts dramatically. With this loss, Trump might have newfound leverage over Putin, as dropping Syria undermines Russia’s affect within the area and strains its already overstretched sources. This might open a path for Trump to barter the top of the conflict in Ukraine from a stronger place, leveraging Putin’s setbacks in Syria.”
IRAN
Iran’s spiritual chief Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, proper, meets Syrian chief Bashar al-Assad in Tehran, Iran, on Feb. 25, 2019. (IRANIAN LEADER PRESS OFFICE / HANDOUT/Anadolu Company/Getty Photos)
For Iran, Assad’s fall offers a devastating blow to its long-term regional technique. Syria was a vital hyperlink in Tehran’s “Axis of Resistance,” connecting Iran to Hezbollah in Lebanon and enabling the smuggling of weapons throughout the area by way of a hall stretching from Iran by Iraq and Syria into Lebanon.
“That is an unprecedented, historic second,” Svetlova mentioned. “The Iranian ‘Ring of Fireplace,’ meticulously constructed by Qassem Soleimani, has been shattered. If Soleimani was nonetheless alive, he could be horrified to see the collapse of his life’s work.”
The weakening of Hezbollah throughout its conflict with Israel additional exacerbated Assad’s vulnerability, leaving the regime with out vital help on the bottom. Hezbollah had been a key drive aiding Assad’s military in the course of the civil conflict, however after sustaining heavy losses to Israeli forces, it may now not present enough help. In the meantime, Iran shunned sending further troops to bolster Assad.
SYRIAN DICTATOR BASHAR ASSAD FLEES INTO EXILE AS ISLAMIST REBELS CONQUER COUNTRYÂ
Insurgent fighters stand close to the Iranian embassy with a torn poster of Hezbollah chief Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah and late Iran’s Revolutionary Guards’ prime commander Qassem Soleimani after Syrian rebels introduced that they’ve ousted President Bashar al-Assad, in Damascus, Syria, Dec. 8, 2024. (REUTERS/Firas Makdesi)
An Iranian journalist, talking anonymously to Fox Information Digital from Iran, make clear the interior response in Iran. “Nearly all of Iranians are celebrating Assad’s downfall. For years, Khamenei and the Revolutionary Guard funneled sources into preserving the Axis of Resistance, draining the Iranian individuals’s wealth. Now, with Assad gone, there’s hope that Iran’s oppressive affect within the area will weaken. It is a second of pleasure for many who have lengthy opposed the regime’s insurance policies.”
“The Iranian individuals and the regime are worlds aside of their views,” mentioned one other Iranian dissident who spoke anonymously to Fox Information Digital from the nation. “Whereas the regime has largely watched Assad’s downfall from the sidelines, doubtless on account of its personal inner weaknesses or strategic agreements, the Iranian individuals are celebrating. There’s a wave of hope and pleasure spreading throughout social media, fueled by the concept that revolutions in nations aligned with the Islamic Republic – previous or current – may spark a domino impact. For a lot of, Assad’s collapse represents the weakening of the resistance axis and a glimmer of chance for change inside Iran itself.”
ISLAMIST REBELS IN SYRIA CATCH ASSAD, PUTIN, IRAN REGIMES OFF GUARD GIVING US NEW MIDEAST HEADACHE
Rebels in northwest Syria seized army autos belonging to the regime alongside the route towards Kweris Airport within the japanese countryside of Aleppo on Dec. 2, 2024. (Rami Alsayed/NurPhoto by way of APRami Alsayed/NurPhoto by way of AP)
Whereas Assad’s fall creates alternatives for a brand new order within the Center East, it additionally presents important dangers. The shock assault on Assad’s forces, led by the Salafi-jihadist group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) beneath the command of Abu Mohammed al-Golani, underscores the complexity of the scenario. HTS, Syria’s strongest insurgent faction, advanced from the al-Qaeda-linked Nusra Entrance however claimed to sever ties with the group in 2016. It stays designated a terrorist group by the U.S. and different nations.
“Who will fill the void?” Koffler warned. “The rebels aren’t good individuals – they’re the identical extremists we’ve seen earlier than. Whereas they could seem on Western media sporting a inexperienced T-shirt and giving polished interviews, the truth is completely different. Eradicating one dictator usually results in even worse outcomes, as we noticed in Iraq and Libya.”
Avner Golov, former senior director of Israel’s Nationwide Safety Council and vp at Thoughts Israel, believes there’s a potential upside for each the U.S. and Israel.
Fighters enter the Rashidin district on the outskirts of Aleppo on their motorbikes with smoke billowing within the background throughout preventing on Nov. 29, 2024, as Hayat Tahrir al-Sham jihadists and allied factions proceed their offensive within the Aleppo province towards authorities forces. (Photograph by BAKR ALKASEM/AFP by way of Getty Photos)
“The collapse of Assad’s regime underscores the failures of Russia and Iran as powers within the area. In the meantime, the U.S. has proven its power by standing with Israel and selecting the successful facet. It is a vital alternative for Washington to leverage its place and construct a coalition of average Arab states – Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Jordan, and Egypt – with Israel, to counter each Sunni and Shia Islamist forces. This coalition may present a stabilizing drive within the area and counter the rising affect of extremist teams.”
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Golov mentioned there are ramifications for Beijing. “China has been largely absent within the Center East conflicts, focusing as a substitute on its international financial objectives. In distinction, Russia has confirmed itself unreliable in Syria, retreating whereas the U.S. supported its allies. This presents a singular alternative for America to strengthen its place within the Center East amid the collapse of the Iranian axis.”
