India’s probabilities to qualify for the ICC World Take a look at Championship (WTC) will endure a large stoop in the event that they lose the third Take a look at on the Wankhede Stadium and obtain a collection white-wash by the hands of New Zealand on Sunday.
After Jadeja’s 10-wicket match haul with two five-fors, India had been set a 147-run goal. Nevertheless, the hosts suffered a large collapse, leaving them 5 down for 28. A defeat right here might imply catastrophic for India’s probabilities, with their remaining 5 Exams to be performed in opposition to Australia, Down Underneath.
New Zealand’s 2-0 collection lead in Pune had meant India’s WTC factors share (PCT) dipped from above 74 % to 62.82 per cent inside eight days. Nevertheless, Rohit Sharma’s workforce nonetheless clings on to the highest spot, with a slender lead over second-placed Australia at 62.50.
Moreover Australia and New Zealand, South Africa and Sri Lanka are the opposite groups that may hamper India’s probabilities within the the rest of this cycle.
What number of defeats can India afford from right here?
To qualify with out relying on others, India can’t afford one other defeat of their remaining six matches. Furthermore, India can solely afford a most of 1 draw and win 5 video games to complete on a PCT of 71.05. With six outright wins, Rohit and Co. can accumulate 170 factors at a commanding 74.56 PCT. That will require India to drag off a surprising 5-0 coup Down Underneath in opposition to the defending WTC champions.
Different situations for India
A minimal of two wins will preserve India in competition for a battle with different outcomes additionally swaying their approach. To keep up their PCT over 60, India should win a minimum of two Exams and draw 4 matches.
India’s parallel WTC contenders
Sri Lanka
Sri Lanka are in with a exterior probability of constructing the WTC remaining, ought to they win all of their remaining video games and India lose maintain of factors alongside the best way. Sri Lanka have 4 Exams remaining – two in opposition to South Africa away and two in opposition to Australia later in 2025. At present positioned third with a PCT of 55.56, Sri Lanka can end with 108 factors with 4 successive wins. That will elevate the Lankans to a PCT of 69.23, which India can higher solely with a minimum of 5 extra wins (PCT then – 69.29) of their remaining matches.
South Africa
With an important collection win in Bangladesh, South Africa are slowly climbing up within the WTC ladder. The Proteas have two house collection remaining in opposition to Sri Lanka and Pakistan, with two Exams apiece. With wins in all of those matches, South Africa can end with a PCT of 69.44, leaving India with a problem of not conceding one other defeat and drawing just one recreation to safe a minimal of 71.05 PCT with 5 wins.
New Zealand
The BlackCaps have emerged because the shock thorn to India’s WTC hopes. With a win in Pune, New Zealand’s PCT rose to 50 %. Moreover the Mumbai Take a look at, they may have three extra Exams at house in opposition to England. With 4 extra wins, former champions New Zealand can end on a finest PCT of 64.28, which might are available play ought to different outcomes favour them in the remainder of the cycle.
Australia
It’s extremely unlikely that India and Australia will make it to the WTC remaining collectively regardless of holding onto the highest two spots at present. Australia can safe their berth with 4 wins from their remaining seven Exams – 5 at house in opposition to India and two in opposition to Sri Lanka.
Present WTC 2023-25 Factors Desk
|
Pos. |
Group |
Matches |
Ded. |
PTS contested |
Factors |
PCT |
|||
| P | W | L | D | ||||||
| 1 | India | 13 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 156 | 98 | 62.82 |
| 2 | Australia | 12 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 10 | 144 | 90 | 62.5 |
| 3 | Sri Lanka | 9 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 108 | 60 | 55.56 |
| 4 | South Africa | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 96 | 52 | 54.16 |
| 5 | New Zealand | 10 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 120 | 60 | 50 |
| 6 | England | 19 | 9 | 9 | 1 | 19 | 228 | 93 | 40.79 |
| 7 | Pakistan | 10 | 4 | 6 | 0 | 8 | 120 | 40 | 33.33 |
| 8 | Bangladesh | 10 | 3 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 120 | 33 | 27.5 |
| 9 | West Indies | 9 | 1 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 108 | 20 | 18.52 |
