Shut struggle within the trenches: A take a look at the bottom recreation within the presidential race

A slim edge in voter contact by Kamala Harris’ marketing campaign on the nationwide degree fades to parity within the battleground states — however Harris has been doing extra to show her contacts into voter help, an ABC Information/Ipsos ballot finds.

Three weeks earlier than Election Day, and with early voting underway in additional than 40 states, the extent of political outreach is huge. Greater than 4 in 10 Individuals have been contacted by the Harris or Trump campaigns asking for his or her vote, rising to 62% within the seven battleground states.

Nationally, 30% report having been contacted by Harris’ marketing campaign, vs. 26% by Trump’s — a small edge for Harris. This evens out within the battleground states, the place 47% report contacts by Trump’s marketing campaign, 46% by Harris’. These counts exclude fundraising appeals — and certainly have grown since this survey was accomplished final week.

See PDF for full outcomes.

In all, 16% of adults have been contacted nationally by Harris’ marketing campaign solely, 12% by Trump’s solely and 14% by each, including to 42%. Within the battlegrounds, it is 15% by Trump solely, 14% by Harris solely and 32% by each.

Help

There is a hole when it comes to voter help. Nationally, 43% of these contacted by the Harris marketing campaign say they have been supplied one in every of a number of types of voting help, vs. 35% of these contacted by Trump’s marketing campaign. Within the battleground states, provides of help run 48-39% in Harris’ favor, a slight benefit given pattern sizes.

Types of help examined within the survey embrace checking that individuals are registered to vote, confirming their plans to vote and ensuring they know the place to vote. Within the battlegrounds (Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin), individuals contacted by Harris are 8 proportion factors extra apt than these contacted by Trump to report assist ensuring they’re registered and seven factors extra apt to report an effort to verify they’ve voted or will vote, each slight variations given pattern sizes. Gaps nationally are comparable.

Concentrating on

This ballot, produced by Langer Analysis Associates for ABC, with fieldwork by Ipsos, additionally finds some indicators of extra focused outreach by Harris. Nationally, 46% of Democrats have heard from her marketing campaign, vs. 37% of Republicans contacted by the Trump marketing campaign. And 42% of Harris supporters say her marketing campaign has reached out to them, vs. 35% of Trump’s supporters contacted by his aspect.

Just like Harris’ lead on total contacts, these gaps disappear within the battleground states. That stated, amongst individuals in these states who report having voted for Joe Biden in 2020, 71% report a contact by the Harris marketing campaign this 12 months. Amongst those that voted for Trump in 2020, fewer, 59%, report a 2024 Trump marketing campaign contact.

Naturally, Harris’ marketing campaign has had way more contact than Trump’s amongst Democrats and liberals, whereas Trump’s has executed extra outreach to Republicans and conservatives. Nationwide outcomes additionally show marketing campaign concentrating on in different methods. Three examples:

• Forty-one % of Black individuals — a broadly pro-Harris group — report contact by Harris’ marketing campaign, in contrast with 26% contacted by Trump’s. Extra narrowly, 27% of Hispanic individuals report contact by the Harris marketing campaign vs. 21% by the Trump marketing campaign. (There aren’t any variations in marketing campaign contacts amongst white individuals.)
• Amongst individuals youthful than 40 — a typically pro-Harris group — 27% report a Harris marketing campaign contact vs. 19% contacted by the Trump marketing campaign.
• In contrast, amongst white evangelical Protestants, a solidly pro-Trump group, 34% have been contacted by the Trump marketing campaign, vs. 16% by Harris’.

There are inefficiencies on each side. Nationally, 24% of Trump supporters have been contacted by the Harris marketing campaign asking for his or her vote, and 21% of Harris supporters have been contacted by the Trump marketing campaign. Misplaced outreach rises within the battlegrounds: There, 44% of Harris supporters have been requested for a Trump vote, and 41% of Trump supporters have heard from the Harris marketing campaign.

Utilizing nationwide knowledge for ample pattern sizes, there are a number of teams during which Harris’ marketing campaign exceeds Trump’s in providing help to individuals they’ve contacted. It is 58% amongst Black individuals contacted by Harris’ marketing campaign vs. 38% amongst Black individuals contacted by Trump’s. It is 40% amongst school graduates contacted by Harris vs. 26% amongst these contacted by Trump. And the Harris marketing campaign has supplied help to 42% of independents it is contacted, a possible swing voter group, vs. 32% amongst independents contacted by the Trump marketing campaign.

Textual content me perhaps

Textual content messages are the commonest sorts of outreach, reported by 61% of those that’ve heard from both or each of the campaigns. That is adopted by e mail, 43%; postal mail, 36%; social media, 25%; and cellphone or voicemail, 19%.

Final on the checklist is the sort of outreach many political scientists say is best — in-person contact, reported by 6%.

The distribution of contact varieties is comparable throughout the 2 campaigns total, albeit with extra digital outreach by Harris and extra by mail from Trump. Nationally, 84% of her contacts report having heard from her marketing campaign by textual content, e mail or on social media vs. 77% of Trump’s. Trump, for his half, leads on postal mail outreach, 38 vs. 29%. Distributions look largely comparable within the battlegrounds, though each campaigns seem like focusing extra on postal mail; 56% of battleground state respondents who’ve been contacted by both marketing campaign have been contacted by way of postal mail vs. 36% nationally.

Methodology

This ABC Information/Ipsos ballot was performed on-line by way of the probability-based Ipsos KnowledgePanel® Oct. 4-8, 2024, in English and Spanish, amongst a random nationwide pattern of two,631 adults. Partisan divisions are 29-29-30%, Democrats-Republicans-independents. Outcomes have a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 2 proportion factors, together with the design impact, for the complete pattern. Error margins are bigger for subgroups, together with 5 factors for battleground state residents. Sampling error will not be the one explanation for variations in polls.

The survey was produced for ABC Information by Langer Analysis Associates, with sampling and knowledge assortment by Ipsos. See particulars on ABC Information survey methodology right here.