Because the BJP on Tuesday received a historic third consecutive time period in Haryana, information from Lok Sabha and Meeting polls confirmed that electoral contests within the state have turn out to be more and more bipolar during the last decade. The info additionally reveal that the hole between the BJP and Congress, the highest two events within the state, has narrowed in the identical interval, because the regional events have been more and more squeezed out.
In 2014, the BJP received seven out of Haryana’s 10 Lok Sabha seats en path to energy on the Centre. Whereas the Congress received only one seat, the O P Chautala-led Indian Nationwide Lok Dal (INLD) received two. The BJP led with a 34.8% vote share, adopted by the INLD at 24.4% and the Congress at 23%.
Months later, the BJP received the Haryana Meeting elections, getting a majority with 47 seats and a 33.3% vote share, ending the Congress’s 10-year rule within the state. The Congress received simply 15 Meeting seats and a 20.7% vote share, whereas the INLD received 19 seats and a 24.2% vote share.
Within the 2019 Lok Sabha election, the BJP improved its tally, successful all 10 seats. It received a whopping 58.2% of the vote; the Congress received solely 28.5%.
Nevertheless, within the Meeting polls, which happened later that very same yr, the BJP fell to 40 seats, six wanting majority. The celebration wanted 10 MLAs of the Dushyant Chautala-led Jannayak Janta Occasion (JJP) to kind the federal government. The Congress received 31 seats. Each the BJP and Congress elevated their vote shares to 36.5% and 28.1% respectively.
Within the 2024 Lok Sabha polls, the BJP fell to only 5 Lok Sabha seats, the identical as what the Congress received. The BJP secured a vote share of 46.11%, and the Congress 43.67%.
On Tuesday, nevertheless, the BJP emerged with its highest-ever seat tally (48) and vote share (39.9%) within the state. The Congress recorded an improved vote share at 39.1%, however received solely 37 seats.
Over the course of the final three Meeting polls, the hole between the Congress and BJP when it comes to vote share has shrunk significantly. From being separated by 12.6 share factors in 2014, the hole is now simply 0.8 share factors. There’s a related development in Lok Sabha polls as nicely. The hole between the 2 events shrank from 29.7 share factors in 2019 to only 2.44 share factors in 2024.
Because the BJP-Congress contest has turn out to be tighter, the regional events have misplaced out. The INLD fell from a 24.2% vote share in 2014 to 2.4% in 2019 earlier than making a marginal restoration to 4.14% this yr. The JJP, which made a splash in its ballot debut, secured a decent 14.8% vote share in 2019. However this yr, it fell beneath even the INLD, its father or mother celebration, to a 0.9% vote share.
