A Democratic win in Indiana. A Republican victory in New Mexico. And an election the place Missouri was determined by lower than 4,000 votes.
They’ve all occurred within the final twenty years.
These outcomes are little greater than trivia questions at the moment (the solutions are 2008, 2004, and 2008 once more). On the time, they raised eyebrows and altered our understanding of the voters.
Surprises occur on election week. And when the nationwide race appears to be like this shut, one surprising flip can determine who wins the White Home.
Harris nonetheless nearer to 270 than Trump, however it’s anybody’s sport
Vice President Harris nonetheless has the sting on this week’s forecast. It predicts that Harris will take residence at the least 241 electoral school votes to Trump’s 219.
Fox Information Energy Rankings presidential forecast.
Her benefit isn’t any bigger than it was in September, and as this column has talked about, battleground states are often – and principally – gained and misplaced collectively. The six toss-up states on this forecast are price 78 votes, sufficient to present both candidate a victory on election night time.
Nationwide polls present a good race: a Quinnipiac survey has Harris and former President Trump tied at 48%-48% with doubtless voters, whereas Marist has the candidates at 50%-48%, properly inside the polls’ margins of sampling error.
FOX NEWS POWER RANKINGS: TRUMP MAINTAINS LEAD ON TWO TOP ISSUES
Neither ballot exhibits Trump slipping with the nationwide voters. Different latest polls confirmed a level price of abrasion after the September presidential debate.
Fox Information Energy Rankings presidential map.
Battleground state polls have been sparse. (Hurricane Helene has devastated communities in Georgia and North Carolina, and Hurricane Milton will quickly make landfall in Florida. This may have an effect on the accuracy of polling in these areas.)
General, this race remains to be anybody’s sport.
All eyes on an October shock
Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz and Ohio Sen. JD Vance debated per week in the past in New York Metropolis. Vance principally broke by the character that Democrats had constructed for him, whereas Walz stumbled out of the gate.
A flash ballot confirmed neither candidate profitable the night time. As at all times, look forward to outcomes from a number of polls carried out within the weeks after the controversy to correctly assess the polling affect.
That was the one scheduled occasion that might shock voters this month. (Fox Information Media has proposed a second Harris-Trump debate later in October.)
4 weeks till election night time.
In fact, it’s the surprising occasions in years previous which have carried out extra to reshape the race. And occasions in two classes have already resurfaced.
- Extreme climate: Hurricane Sandy tore by the northeast in late October 2012. President Obama’s cooperation with New Jersey Governor Chris Christie was a landmark second. This 12 months, Helene and Milton are testing the candidates. Trump made visits to Georgia and North Carolina final week, and Harris was in Asheville over the weekend with Governor Roy Cooper.
- International coverage: A video from Osama Bin Laden 4 days earlier than the 2004 election refocused the race on 9/11, nationwide safety and America’s warfare on terrorism. Yesterday marked a 12 months since Hamas’ terrorist assault in Israel and warfare rages between Ukraine and Russia; each are reminders of world instability in the course of the Biden Administration.
FOX NEWS POLL: VOTERS CITE HIGH PRICES AS BIGGEST MOTIVATOR TO VOTE
Polarization will restrict the affect of those occasions on the horserace. However watch Harris and Trump’s help with independents over the approaching weeks. These voters made up 5% of the voters in 2020, they usually broke for President Biden by 15 factors; latest polls put Harris in that ballpark. Trump doubtless must claw that again to win the race.
Two states that might shock in November
Fox Information Energy Rankings Possible D & Possible R races.
There are 9 “doubtless” races on the Energy Rankings map. The 2 that will have the most important affect on the race are Florida and Virginia.
Former President Trump improved his efficiency in Florida within the 2020 presidential election, bringing his margin as much as about 372,000 votes.
That’s a win of three.4 factors, or his second-closest victory of the cycle. (The closest was North Carolina, a toss-up within the rankings, which he gained by 1.3 factors.)
Florida is Possible R on the Energy Rankings.
Republicans have robust benefits. The state’s White working-class and senior voters lean in direction of Trump, whereas its giant Hispanic inhabitants, significantly the Cuban and Venezuelan communities, has shifted proper lately.
The GOP gained large at each degree within the midterms and enjoys a 1 million-plus voter registration benefit, and most tellingly, the Democratic Social gathering isn’t making vital investments.
Democrats hope {that a} aggressive Senate race, the place incumbent Republican Rick Scott has personally spent greater than $8 million, means the presidential election is nearer than folks assume. Florida can also be certainly one of three aggressive states with an abortion measure on the poll.
It will take a blowout night time for Harris to flip the Sunshine State. It will even be the primary state after the battlegrounds to go blue.
Florida stays at Possible R within the rankings.
A win for Trump in Virginia would even be surprising, particularly since Biden gained this state by greater than 10 factors in 2020.
Virginia is Possible D on the Energy Rankings.
The state has the next proportion of Black, suburban, and college-educated voters than the remainder of the nation, and all three teams assist Democrats run up the margin. Whereas Republicans talked about Virginia after the June presidential debate, the race has modified, and neither get together is making large investments within the state at the moment.
Harris leads in Virginia.
Some polls present a race that isn’t over for the GOP. A survey from Virginia Commonwealth College in September put Harris at 47% with registered voters and Trump at 37%. A ballot from the Washington Publish earlier within the month had Harris at 50% to Trump’s 42%.
Nonetheless, it could take a blowout within the different route for the Previous Dominion to reject Harris. Virginia stays a Possible D race.
4 weeks till election night time
1.5 million voters have forged a poll up to now.
Greater than 1.5 million voters have forged their poll because the countdown to election night time continues. Early voting has now begun in:
CLICK HERE TO GET THE FOX NEWS APP
The Harris ticket continues a media tour this week whereas Trump will rally in Scranton, Pennsylvania. The GOP has carried out surprisingly properly there lately.
