Welcome to 538’s politics chat. The transcript under has been evenly edited.
nrakich (Nathaniel Rakich, senior editor and elections analyst): ‘Tis the season on your favourite media shops to publish “yr in overview” articles — the yr’s finest films, recipes, actuality TV moments, and so on. However we at 538 are pondering greater. As an alternative of “yr in overview,” how about “presidency in overview”?
On Jan. 20, 2025 — 28 days from at the moment — President Joe Biden will depart workplace after only one time period. That acquired us pondering … What have been the largest information tales of the final 4 years? What is going to Biden’s presidency be remembered for, and can these reminiscences be good or dangerous ones? So for the ultimate 538 Slack chat of 2024, I’ve assembled an all-star panel of reporters and political scientists to debate what Biden’s legacy will probably be.
Now, I need to acknowledge up entrance that it is a untimely train: Ideally, you want distance — and a data of how issues performed out after they left workplace — to correctly assess a presidency, and historians are continuously reevaluating their perceptions of even long-dead presidents based mostly on evolving sensibilities.
But it surely’s usually mentioned that journalism is the primary draft of historical past, and somebody wants to put in writing that first draft! So, based mostly on what we all know at the moment, in the event you guys needed to decide one second/episode/pattern/accomplishment/failure from Biden’s presidency that can go down in historical past, what wouldn’t it be? Let’s begin with you, Geoffrey.
geoffrey.skelley (Geoffrey Skelley, senior elections analyst): “We lastly beat Medicare.” Thus started the top of Biden’s reelection marketing campaign in his infamously dangerous debate towards President-elect Donald Trump on June 27, 2024. And since Trump went on to win this election, Biden’s selection to hunt reelection will undoubtedly be a chief focus of his presidency, though we’ll have to attend to see how different elements of his presidency will probably be remembered.
Biden determined to run once more regardless of issues about his age, after which his debate exhibiting considerably strengthened the doubts many citizens already had. Biden stepped apart for Vice President Kamala Harris in late July, changing into the primary presumptive presidential nominee within the fashionable main period to drop a reelection bid. This left his vice chairman about three months to marketing campaign for the workplace, a race she narrowly misplaced.
We do not understand how Trump’s second time period will go, however contemplating how impactful it could possibly be, it is exhausting to not give attention to how Biden’s option to run once more could have performed into Trump’s victory. It is tough to say how issues may’ve performed out in another way, after all — counterfactuals at all times are. However had Biden determined to bow out approach again in late 2022, maybe a unique candidate who received a contested Democratic presidential main would have defeated Trump.
Monica Potts (Monica Potts, senior politics reporter): I agree, Geoffrey, and I believed you’d select the talk. I do suppose it will likely be remembered as a turning level, and for inflicting a particularly uncommon occasion within the fashionable period: a nominee leaving the presidential race so late within the cycle and primarily anointing his vice chairman with out a main.
nrakich: Yeah, we’re elections folks, so we is likely to be biased. However I believe the unprecedented and dramatic nature of Biden’s withdrawal from the 2024 election just about ensures it’ll at the least be talked about within the historical past books.
julia_azari (Julia Azari, professor of political science at Marquette College and 538 contributor): Sorry, acquired distracted by the end-of-year recipes.
This undoubtedly is sensible to me, however I additionally suppose that as we get farther from the 2024 election, this may increasingly fade from reminiscence. Individuals do not precisely keep in mind former President Lyndon B. Johnson’s resolution to drop out of the 1968 election as his foremost legacy, for instance, however they do keep in mind the broader circumstances: home unrest and the Vietnam Struggle. It is exhausting to consider an instance of an election that grew to become a president’s foremost legacy.
nrakich: That is an attention-grabbing level, Julia. I really feel like Johnson’s withdrawal from the 1968 marketing campaign is one thing that historical past will always remember … however, to your level, I am unsure it is actually legacy-defining.
What can be the equal of these broader circumstances for Biden? His age? I may see a giant a part of his legacy being a cautionary story for People to elect anybody older than, say, 75.
geoffrey.skelley: Except he is working towards somebody about the identical age, after all.
julia_azari: Proper — Trump is only some years youthful than Biden.
nrakich: Properly, but it surely may give main voters pause about supporting somebody that previous sooner or later.
Monica Potts: I do suppose it actually solidified for voters and folks lively within the events to shift to youthful politicians.
Along with the talk, I used to be additionally going to decide on Biden’s resolution to run once more. I do not know if there was a precise second when that occurred. He’d been hinting at a reelection marketing campaign for months earlier than formally asserting his bid in April 2023. On the time, he pitched his candidacy as an try to carry democracy collectively and argued that Trump was an existential menace to the nation. However many citizens had buried the chaos of Trump’s first time period, the COVID-19 pandemic and the occasions of Jan. 6 deep of their reminiscence vaults. They have been rather more involved with what had occurred throughout Biden’s time period: record-breaking inflation and the truth that he was quickly getting older in entrance of them.
It actually makes one marvel about the entire Democratic leaders who had epiphanies about Biden’s age after the talk and put stress on him to depart the race. Why did not they’ve these earlier within the cycle? He’d been working for reelection for greater than a yr at that time. There had been lots of grumbling about his getting older, though in equity a lot of it got here from nameless sources griping to the press, and a few complaints had an ableist ring to them. However as you have written, Nathaniel, some Democrats reportedly had doubts about whether or not he ought to run once more at an earlier stage, and people folks may have intervened in time for a main. Virtually all the things else Biden completed will probably be overshadowed by that, due to course his govt and legislative legacies might be undone by Trump.
geoffrey.skelley: To me, the query is, how a lot was Biden’s legacy tied up in defeating Trump in 2020, and the way a lot of that’s undone by what occurred in 2024 to carry Trump again to energy?
Monica has properly linked how the marketing campaign state of affairs may assist erode any likelihood for Biden to have a optimistic legacy. His opponent is reentering workplace and can try and undo lots of Biden’s accomplishments, doubtlessly decreasing the probabilities that anybody says in a number of years, “Wow, that factor Biden did had a long-lasting impression.”
julia_azari: I undoubtedly suppose that Biden’s incapability to carry off Trumpism in the long run will probably be a giant a part of his legacy, however I’m wondering how a lot the particulars of the 2024 election will grow to be an enduring a part of that story.
geoffrey.skelley: I assume, to me, the talk and its aftermath are a microcosm of that, Julia. A simple factor to level to.
nrakich: Yeah, but additionally, that is one thing we’ll be capable to assess lots higher in 2029, after we understand how Trump’s second time period went. Will he do lasting harm to our democracy, as Biden and different Democrats imagine he’ll? Or will he really make America nice once more?
geoffrey.skelley: Or which of these two extremes will we find yourself nearer to …
nrakich: I assume neither end result would replicate tremendous properly on Biden.
Monica Potts: Proper. I believe the occasions of the 2024 marketing campaign will probably be a straightforward factor to level to, however I additionally suppose that Julia’s right in that, down the street, there is likely to be a broader view of what was happening this yr, and it is likely to be wrapped into a bigger story about “The COVID-19 Period,” or one thing we have not fairly named but.
nrakich: Talking of which …
Monica, I used to be going to go to you subsequent, however you already mentioned that you simply agree that Biden’s resolution to drop out was the headline of his presidency. However do you’ve a runner-up?
Monica Potts: I believe that a few of Biden’s accomplishments, just like the Inflation Discount Act or his efforts to forgive a document variety of scholar loans, could very properly depart an enduring impression. It is exhausting to inform precisely: Trump has already promised to reverse a few of the parts of the Inflation Discount Act and pull again unspent cash, and we may even see that first with a few of the tax credit that may have gone out to householders and automobile consumers for making environmentally acutely aware decisions.
However the Inflation Discount Act additionally made efforts to increase manufacturing and infrastructure within the U.S., and a few issues, like lithium mining in Arkansas, can most likely be traced to that coverage. Likewise, people who had their loans forgiven could have a unique reminiscence of Biden’s presidency, absolutely, and it might impression how they’re in a position to retire or make investments as they age. So we are going to see.
julia_azari: I believe it is a good level. One thing I’ve considered lots since Biden’s reputation dipped in 2021 is that, with the advantage of hindsight, he may begin to appear to be Harry Truman or Dwight Eisenhower — presidents who weren’t thought-about terribly flashy in their very own time (Eisenhower was widespread however thought-about a light-weight by Critical Authorities Varieties) however got here to be thought to be a lot stronger on coverage and decision-making a long time after they left workplace.
(Presidential legacy-making is fascinating and somebody ought to write a ebook about it.)
nrakich: I agree that the Inflation Discount Act — a very strong anti-climate-change invoice — was most likely Biden’s largest legislative achievement. However with out tipping my hand an excessive amount of, I am skeptical that particular laws, reasonably than normal vibes/situations, will probably be what Biden is most remembered for.
I take your level about previous presidents, Julia, and I believe it is potential that, like Truman, folks will probably be extra impressed by Biden’s coverage achievements (which he completed with very slender majorities in each the Senate and Home) as soon as they overlook that he spent most of his presidency with fairly low approval scores.
And name me pessimistic, however I additionally am unsure that the Inflation Discount Act will do sufficient to counter local weather change to be remembered as actually transformative. We’re already seeing the consequences of a warming planet, and with out decisive motion from nations exterior the U.S., the planet appears more likely to get greater than 1.5 levels Celsius hotter than the pre-industrial baseline — a crimson line set by many scientists.
Monica Potts: One thing that retains me up at evening, Nathaniel.
nrakich: What about you, Julia? What do you suppose has been the defining occasion of the Biden presidency?
julia_azari: I’m nonetheless making an attempt to consider the occasion that actually illustrates this, however along with what everybody has already mentioned, I believe Biden’s presidency will probably be seen as a turning level within the Democratic Social gathering (although in what path I am not precisely certain).
One thing we do not discuss lots is that Biden’s 2020 nomination was uncommon in a approach: When you purchase coalition theories of nominations, Biden wasn’t a lot the “acceptable to all factions” nominee because the one thought-about most “electable,” after which, as soon as he clinched the nomination, he needed to spend effort and time reaching out to the progressive wing of the get together.
I see this fault line much less as one on coverage and extra as a cut up between a faction that needed to return to “regular” after Trump, that favors establishments and the established order, and one that wishes to see critical change within the construction of American authorities and politics. Biden did attempt, I believe, as a celebration man by means of and thru, to carry these two factions collectively. However the 2024 election loss places a whole lot of pressure on that alliance. What is the Democrats’ path ahead? Will the established order folks win? The progressives? Or will this be an extended interval of push and pull, with seen intraparty strife? I do not know at this level.
I can consider two occasions that illustrate this: (1) Biden saying “fund the police” in his 2022 State of the Union tackle and (2) — that is going to sound bizarre — the withdrawal from Afghanistan. Not as a result of it was clearly an motion related to both faction, however as a result of it confirmed how a lot Biden’s presidency was outlined by contending with the selections of his predecessors and the way tough it’s to alter instructions, even because the American public soured on the Afghanistan warfare specifically and interventions prefer it generally.
geoffrey.skelley: At a time when there is a main lack of religion in establishments, the perceived failures of an institutionalist like Biden may considerably affect Democrats shifting ahead. It connects to what I believe is certainly one of their bigger challenges, which is being perceived because the get together of presidency and establishment whereas the GOP is seen because the anti-establishment pressure.
Granted, let’s watch out to not vastly overstate the that means of an in depth election.
nrakich: Fascinating! Yeah, the longer term path of the Democratic Social gathering is unquestionably a giant query going ahead, however I believe due to that, we cannot know if this was a giant a part of Biden’s legacy for a number of extra years.
julia_azari: The corollary is that I’m wondering what Biden’s legacy and Harris’s loss (mixed with former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton’s loss in 2016) means for former President Barack Obama’s legacy.
nrakich: Now we’re getting meta!
I believe the distinction there’s that Clinton’s loss cannot actually be pinned on Obama. He was widespread on the time; she wasn’t. This yr, Harris was extra widespread than Biden, so I believe he’s extra liable for Trump’s win.
julia_azari: You knew I might be annoying once you invited me. (I ought to get a T-shirt that claims that.)
Monica Potts: I believe that is true, Julia, and one thing I hadn’t considered. What’s attention-grabbing to me is that a few of what Biden did as president was extra progressive than the progressive wing of the get together was anticipating. Like Biden’s Nationwide Labor Relations Board appointments, and appointing Lina Khan, a huge opponent of tech monopolies, as chair of the Federal Commerce Fee.
nrakich: Yeah, I might really argue that Biden was most likely essentially the most progressive president in U.S. historical past? However I am unsure if he will probably be seen that approach, and thus I am unsure how that can have an effect on the institution vs. rebel combat that is going to play out within the 2028 Democratic presidential main.
Monica Potts: Sure, agreed.
julia_azari: Sure, I see that too.
And Biden’s popularity with the left flank of the get together is likely to be completely different with out the Gaza difficulty, which we have not talked about. However it’s a part of the fault line I discussed.
geoffrey.skelley: Internationally, the state of affairs in Gaza will most likely be a serious a part of Biden’s legacy. I am unsure it will have as a lot traction in home remembrances, but it surely’s price noting.
After all, that will get at one other side of Biden’s legacy: the U.S.’s place on this planet and its involvement in occasions elsewhere. In addition to Gaza, Biden’s defeat may need critical penalties for Ukraine, NATO and America’s alliances typically.
Monica Potts: Agreed, Geoffrey, I used to be pondering of that too. It is exhausting to understand how historical past will assess it as a result of Trump could change or shift U.S. coverage towards Israel in ways in which overshadow what Biden did or did not do, and different nations world wide have performed a job as properly.
And sure, Trump’s win will possible have penalties for the way the U.S. interacts with the remainder of the world going ahead too.
geoffrey.skelley: Yeah, will we be making Smoot-Hawley comparisons right here in a number of years relating to protecting commerce measures?
(OK, I is likely to be the one one doing that.)
Monica Potts: You may not be the one one: a complete era discovered about it from “Ferris Bueller’s Day Off.”
nrakich: Yeah, international coverage was on my brief listing as properly — specifically, Biden’s dealing with of the Israel-Hamas warfare and the withdrawal from Afghanistan. However I believe essentially the most remembered side of Biden’s presidency will probably be one thing that I am shocked hasn’t come up but: the rampant inflation of 2021 and 2022.
After inflation mainly went a long time as a non-issue, it shot as much as historic ranges because the financial system overheated post-pandemic and crested at 9.1 p.c in June 2022. It grew to become Republicans’ go-to cudgel towards Biden within the 2022 and 2024 campaigns, and the price of residing constantly ranked as People’ number-one difficulty in polls. The primary burst of inflation was most likely at the least partially liable for Biden’s approval score going from web optimistic to web destructive in September 2021, and naturally it stayed web destructive for the remainder of his presidency. And in line with most post-election evaluation, the financial system was most likely the largest issue behind Trump’s victory on this yr’s election, protecting with the theme of that being a giant a part of Biden’s legacy.
geoffrey.skelley: I used to be type of rolling inflation into the bigger defeat story. However sure, undoubtedly Biden’s presidency will probably be remembered for financial dissatisfaction. That may group him with different one-term presidents like Jimmy Carter and George H.W. Bush: Carter’s tenure noticed clear financial turmoil — “stagflation” and a big shrinking of the financial system — whereas Bush’s additionally featured a recession. Nonetheless, nobody actually thinks again positively about Carter’s presidency, whereas the elder Bush arguably has fared higher in hindsight.
julia_azari: As somebody who type of remembers the H.W. Bush years, it is nearly amusing how a lot his legacy has modified over time.
Monica Potts: I assume a part of me wonders whether or not, in hindsight, inflation will probably be wrapped up within the pandemic story (because it was partly brought on by supply-chain points associated to the pandemic) and never considered a part of Biden’s legacy. I assume I do not know whether or not historical past will lay that at Biden’s toes, and it is a pet peeve of mine that voters are likely to blame presidents for each single factor that occurs on this free market financial system of ours.
nrakich: Certain, presidents even have little management over the financial system. However I believe historical past has proven that presidents do get assigned a whole lot of the credit score or blame for the way the financial system fares beneath their watch. Plus, many economists imagine that the American Rescue Plan — Biden’s first main piece of laws — really did contribute considerably to inflation.
julia_azari: The financial story appears sophisticated to me. Whereas inflation makes the comparisons between Carter and Biden inevitable, a number of different financial indicators have been really fairly robust beneath Biden, which wasn’t the case for Carter. So I believe that makes 2024 completely different from different incumbent-party-rejecting elections like 1980 or 2008.
nrakich: You guys are already moving into it, however my subsequent and remaining query was going to be, the place do you suppose historians will place Biden within the pantheon of presidents? Will he largely be remembered positively or negatively?
julia_azari: I believe it type of will depend on (1) who’s crafting the legacy, and whether or not Democrats (or folks in Biden’s inside circle) resolve they need to work on rehabilitating Biden’s legacy, and (2) what the impression and legacy of Trump’s second time period is.
Monica Potts: I believe it is exhausting to say, however I’ll return to the place we began. I believe Biden’s most vital resolution from a legacy perspective will turn into his resolution to run once more, and I believe not realizing when to step apart will overshadow all the things else. All the pieces he did whereas in workplace now has to outlive a Trump presidency or dangers being overshadowed by it, and it will be a very completely different dialog if a Democrat have been taking workplace subsequent yr. Though, to be clear, the anti-incumbency feeling may need prolonged to any Democrat, and I do not know that any of them would have received.
nrakich: Yeah, one-term presidents are normally not rated very extremely in historic rankings, and I believe there is a cause for that.
As an illustration, in C-SPAN’s 2021 survey of presidential historians, eight of the highest 10 presidents served two phrases (or fairly shut to 2 phrases, like Truman and Teddy Roosevelt). The one exceptions have been Abraham Lincoln and John F. Kennedy — two presidents who did not have the prospect to serve two phrases as a result of they have been assassinated.
geoffrey.skelley: I imply, if we’re getting actually cynical, in 50 years most individuals could solely keep in mind Trump from this period in historical past, making Biden one thing of a footnote analogous to, say, Benjamin Harrison or one of many different one-term presidents of the late nineteenth century (one other interval of intense partisanship and polarization).
If I am nonetheless round, I will spend my dotage speaking about it, although.
