President-elect Donald Trump is ready to take workplace in January with a razor-thin GOP majority within the Home of Representatives that gives Republicans barely any margin of error.
In a single day Wednesday, one in every of two excellent races in California tipped towards Democrats, giving Adam Grey a roughly 182-vote lead over GOP Rep. John Duarte within the inland thirteenth Congressional District within the San Joaquin Valley. In California’s forty fifth Congressional District, anchored in Orange and Los Angeles Counties, Democrat Derek Tran has a roughly 600-vote lead over Republican Rep. Michelle Metal.
In Iowa, GOP Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks up by 800 votes in Iowa’s 2nd Congressional District.
If these outcomes maintain, the Home will begin with a 220-215 GOP majority, even thinner than the present Congress’ margin.
The U.S. Capitol in Washington, November 24, 2024.
Daniel Slim/AFP by way of Getty Pictures
Republican ranks, nevertheless, drop to 219 with former Rep. Matt Gaetz’s resignation. It may fall additional to 217 relying on the timing of the resignations of Reps. Elise Stefanik, R-N.Y., and Mike Waltz, R-Fla., who’re set to affix the Trump administration as U.S. ambassador to United Nations and nationwide safety adviser, respectively.
That may ship the chamber to a 217-215 margin — primarily a one-seat majority in votes the place Democrats stick collectively in opposition and a traditionally sliver benefit.
Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., has pleaded with Trump to keep away from taking any extra Home members for his administration.
“It is a terrific downside to have,” Johnson stated on Fox Information earlier this month. “We’ve a humiliation of riches within the Home Republican Congress. Plenty of gifted people who find themselves very attuned to the America First agenda, they usually can serve the nation effectively in different capacities.”
“However I’ve advised President Trump, sufficient already, give me some reduction. I’ve to take care of this majority. And he understands that, after all, we have been speaking about it nearly hourly day-after-day,” he added.
Home Speaker Mike Johnson speaks at a press convention for Home Republicans, following their management assembly, on Capitol Hill in Washington, Nov. 13, 2024.
Nathan Howard/Reuters
Already, Republicans have handled chaos within the present Congress.
Bands of hardline members have grown simply giant sufficient to dam votes on payments, strikes that have been as soon as considered as past the pale throughout the halls of Congress. And, unforgettably, Republican divisions left the Home with out a speaker for days, each firstly when Kevin McCarthy was seeking to get the requisite assist and once more after he gave up the gavel and members have been torn for days earlier than coalescing behind Johnson.
Heading into the present Congress, Republicans have sought to grease the skids a little bit bit extra to attempt to keep away from such public brawls from occurring sooner or later.
The U.S. Capitol in Washington, November 24, 2024.
Daniel Slim/AFP by way of Getty Pictures
Republicans agreed to lift the variety of lawmakers wanted to set off a vote to oust a speaker from one to 9. In return, lawmakers who oppose proposals to permit votes on payments won’t face retaliation.
However with such a slim margin, anyone Republican may and throw the ground into chaos and block the party-line passage of key payments.
One of many largest legislative objects up for enterprise is an extension of the 2017 tax cuts that Trump pushed throughout his first time period. They’re set to run out subsequent 12 months, and Republicans have hoped to increase them — however 12 Home Republicans voted towards the 2017 GOP tax regulation, which solely handed due to a bigger majority on the time.
In 2017, when Republicans handed a rewrite of the tax code through the first Trump administration, 12 Home Republicans — half of a bigger majority on the time — voted towards the invoice, however didn’t forestall its passage.
Republicans started the 118th Congress in 2023 with 222 seats — a 10-seat margin over 212 Democrats — a majority that spent weeks within the winter deciding on a Home speaker, and a bit of the autumn deciding on a substitute.
A couple of diseases, particular election surprises, or absences may additionally disrupt Republicans’ cautious balancing act.
In 1917, Republicans held the narrowest majority in historical past with a 215-213 edge over Democrats. However a bunch of minor social gathering lawmakers labored with the minority to elect a speaker, delivering the chamber to Democrats, in line with Pew.
