‘’What occurred?’ That was the title of the introspective journey that former First Girl and Democrat presidential candidate Hillary Clinton wrote after the staggering shellacking she acquired from a rambunctious novice referred to as Donald Trump in 2016. Because the jaw-dropping numbers from Maharashtra Meeting elections reached a vertiginous excessive, I used to be sitting in a TV studio amidst each pro-Congress and die-hard BJP supporters; for a change, all of them sported comparable countenances and seemed stupefied: What occurred? I’ll try to do a biopsy of in all probability probably the most extraordinary consequence from the land of Chhatrapati Shivaji Maharaj.
First, the context: Simply 5 months earlier, the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) comprising the Congress, NCP ( Sharad Pawar) and the Shiv Sena (Uddhav Thackeray) had obdurately withstood the saffron surge, and hammered an excellent win in 31/48 Lok Sabha seats, a whopping 65 per cent conversion success fee. It led in 155 meeting constituencies. On the counting day of the state election on November 23, by 10:45 am, the writing was on the billboards of Mumbai. MVA had been ruthlessly crushed, diminished to a paltry 50/288 seats. This was an electoral disaster; no political pundit forecasted this havoc-creating tsunami. In reality, neither had the Mahayuti alliance (BJP, NCP and Shiv Sena) which was the surprised victor. So, what actually occurred?
First, the MVA, shell-shocked by their very own spectacular accomplishment within the Lok Sabha, started fantasising about occupying the chief ministerial residence, Varsha, too early. Their overconfidence seemed like a respectable extenuation of actuality: Rising meals inflation, agrarian misery, youth unemployment, corruption allegations, a belligerent Manoj Jarange-Patil demanding Maratha reservation, and the large emotive subject of disrupting conventional Maharashtrian regional satisfaction; the general public mortification of the son of the towering character of Balasaheb Thackeray, and the modern-day maestro of Machiavellian politics, Sharad Pawar. Unbeknownst to them, the RSS, which had remained studiously detached in June 2024 had already acquired into the act of knocking on family doorways. The RSS celebrates 100 years in 2025: How might Nagpur be reporting to a Congress-led coalition whose chief Rahul Gandhi repeatedly referred to as them a harmful menace to India’s secular future? The MVA underestimated Nagpur’s zealous involvement on this election.
Second, the Congress native management, understandably cocky, made a calculated mistake in not agreeing to endorse Uddhav Thackeray because the CM face of MVA. It was Uddhav’s daring snapping of ties with the BJP that had resurrected Congress, until then sulking in splendid isolation, and created the distinctive MVA experiment. MVA was a exceptional try at forging an alliance of ideologically opposed events. Uddhav had painstakingly redefined his inclusive Hindutva as distinct from BJP’s poisonous, hate-spewing enterprise. Given the Eknath Shinde Shiv Sena faction’s repeated assertions that Uddhav had betrayed his father’s controversial spiritual assertions, Uddhav absolutely knew that he was on a slippery slope towards trenchant unyielding adversaries. Congress wanted to reciprocate the favour within the Meeting elections; their myopic ambitions prevented that. An Uddhav as a CM face would have galvanised Sena supporters state-wide, who, on the core, stay household loyalists, and need a Thackeray on the helm. With Shinde’s personal return as a CM trying extraordinarily unsure, the MVA might have capitalised on a big SS vote share of 16-18 per cent within the state, apart from a number of borderline voters who appreciated Thackeray’s governance throughout Covid and his unassuming likeable manner. It’s past doubt that SS supporters shied away from the MVA as they didn’t relish Nana Patole as the large Kahuna. It was a foul name.
Third, with native points dominating the state election, and the favored notion gaining floor that the MVA was safely forward, Prime Minister Narendra Modi resorted to his regular modus operandi — dog-whistle politics a la Ek hai toh protected hai (we’re protected if we’re united). To a layman unfamiliar with BJP’s divisive rhetoric, that might look like a powerful name for unity. In actuality, it was brazen scaremongering. Protected from whom? Who shouldn’t be letting India unite? Who’re the enemies inside, the fifth columnists? The UP CM had his personal line, and collectively they grew to become flamable materials for polarising politics. Judging by the outcomes, it labored, whereas it trampled masterfully over the caste-reservation name of the MVA. The MVA counter-attack on Modi was overwhelmed by the Massive Media cacophony which helps the strongman’s pitch. Hindutva is BJP’s trump card, a peerless political narrative. It hardly ever fails in a rustic that has been repeatedly uncovered to id chatter since 2014. Modi nationalised a provincial election.
Fourth, the beautiful debacle of Haryana (though Congress and the BJP had equivalent vote shares) had electrified the Mahayuti cadres, and enfeebled the MVA. The general public squabbles among the many MVA management broken notion; Nana Patole grew to become a pariah quickly. Seat-sharing dragged on interminably, and that helped Mahayuti set up the primary voter join. The Ladli Behna scheme, which mirrored the acute financial circumstances of poor households, grew to become the Mahayuti’s USP, with the MVA showing clueless, to fight a clearly opportunistic ploy of a mere Rs 1,500 monthly. The MVA would really double that quantity to Rs 3,000 below the Mahalaxmi scheme, however the manifesto got here simply 10 days earlier than D-day. If the MVA had gone ballistic on the Mahalakshmi Scheme with a month to spare, they’d have considerably dented the precise lack of ladies’s vote. My guess is that rational economists inside the MVA took over, maybe caught within the mathematical gridlock of fiscal profligacy. It was poor politics. First, you win, then you definitely work out your funds.
Fifth, the MVA forgot the cardinal precept of politics within the age of AI, 5G and social media: A day might be a very long time in politics, neglect every week. Maybe 5 months was an excessive amount of; elections are by no means a perfunctory ceremonial affair. Like sports activities, even the raging favorite has to win the title — nobody surrenders to Manchester Metropolis or Novak Djokovic. It’s by no means over until the final poll is counted. Congress needed to do the heavy lifting, however it could find yourself with the bottom strike fee; it floundered twice back-to-back. However in each Jammu and Kashmir and Jharkhand, a stronger savvier regional alliance accomplice stood rooted. Politics wants a 24×7 engagement mannequin. The Bharat Jodo Yatra was an impressive march; Congress acquired large political dividends. However a brand new enticing idiom was wanted, past the formulaic trope. For the grand outdated celebration, the large fear is that it’s refusing to study from unpardonable errors. It has misplaced 5 states the place it was a transparent frontrunner: Punjab, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Haryana and now Maharashtra. It blundered huge in Rajasthan too. It’s by no means too late to reboot, however Congress’s twin failures inside months put India’s democratic future at nice threat.
If Congress wants any inspiration for the long run, it ought to have a look at its fellow accomplice, Hemant Soren and his spouse Kalpana Soren. Jailed, harassed, and going through a vicious hate marketing campaign, a fabricated cost of compelled demographic change on account of Bangladeshi infiltration from a take-no-prisoners BJP, the JMM management remained resilient. The tribal communities of Jharkhand ended up defeating BJP’s toxic play. The BJP which led in a majority of Meeting seats within the 2024 LS elections, was left nonplussed, and saying: What occurred?
The author is a former Congress spokesperson.
