Within the run-up to the seven Meeting bypolls in Rajasthan on November 13, the BJP has the higher hand although it holds solely one of many seven constituencies. In distinction, the Congress that seemed set to have a superb present has seemingly misplaced momentum. This parallels final 12 months’s Meeting elections through which the celebration seemed set to provide BJP a tricky battle however finally misplaced the momentum nearer to the polls and needed to cope with simply 69 seats out of 200, in comparison with BJP’s 115.
Earlier than the Haryana Meeting elections ends in October, Congress had the higher hand within the state, the place it holds 4 of the bypoll seats. Its former allies Bharat Adivasi Get together (BAP) and Rashtriya Loktantrik Get together (RLP) maintain one constituency every. Nevertheless, the momentum the Congress gained after the parliamentary elections — the celebration opened its account for the primary time in a decade and the BJP dropped 10 of its 14 parliamentary seats — and past appeared to have been misplaced after its Haryana debacle. Then, the alliance with the BAP and the RLP additionally fell by way of.
With the BAP, it was largely on account of its ambitions because it wished greater than its Chorasi seat and the Congress too was cautious of its former ally’s rising graph. With the RLP, it was partly on account of celebration chief Hanuman Beniwal’s mercurial nature; he had been taking potshots at state Congress chief Govind Singh Dotasra and the 2 additionally appear to be locked in an intra-caste wrestle.
Nevertheless, the consensus in Congress appears to be that the dearth of alliance was intentional and is sweet because it ensures the native models keep sturdy. “The alliance within the Lok Sabha polls was to defeat the BJP. However we now have native models in all these constituencies. Tying up with the RLP or the BAP would have affected our native management,” stated a Congress chief.
However whereas the BJP contained its rebels, the Congress misplaced Durg Singh — he contested as an Unbiased in 2023 too — to the BJP in the important thing seat of Khinvsar. In Devli Uniara, denied a ticket by the Congress once more, Naresh Meena is contesting as an unbiased and is claiming the help of the BAP, the RLP, and others, whereas former Congress minister Rajendra Gudha has thrown his hat within the ring from Jhunjhunu. Nevertheless, Jhunjhunu isn’t Gudha’s conventional Udaipurwati seat.
On its half, the BJP, in line with celebration insiders, has learnt its classes from the parliamentary elections. And in comparison with the Meeting polls, it has been in a position to micromanage these seats higher, by controlling the rebellions by Jai Ahuja (Ramgarh), Bablu Chaudhary (Jhunjhunu), and Narendra Meena (Salumber), whereas additionally inducting Durg Singh to bolster its prospects in Khinvsar, which the Beniwal household has been profitable since its creation in 2008.
Ahuja pulling out of the race makes it an uphill job for the Congress in Ramgarh. There, Zubair Khan had benefitted from a division of votes in 2023. Whereas Khan polled 93,765 votes, the BJP’s Sukhavant Singh had polled 74,069, and Ahuja 34,882. In 2018 too, Khan’s spouse Shafia Zubair defeated Singh due to a division of votes brought on by the rise up of BJP’s Jagat Singh who contested on a BSP ticket.
Equally in Jhunjhunu, the BJP candidate and the BJP insurgent collectively polled over 1 lakh votes in 2023, over 13,000 greater than Congress’s Brijendra Singh Ola, who’s now a Lok Sabha MP. Furthermore, the Congress’s candidates in Ramgarh and Jhunjhunu, Khan’s son Aryaan Zubair and Amit Ola, are contemporary faces and it isn’t clear how it will play out for them. Aryaan is anticipated to get some sympathy votes on account of his father’s demise, which necessitated the bypoll, and Jhunjhunu is seen because the Ola household stronghold.
Moreover, the BJP could profit from being the ruling celebration, the promise of 4 lakh authorities jobs, crackdown on paper leaks, and issuing a recruitment calendar for the subsequent a number of months, the Jap Rajasthan Canal Challenge (ERCP) — protecting Dausa, Ramgarh and Devli Uniara — and the proposed December funding summit.
Furthermore, not like the Lok Sabha polls, there may be higher coordination between the federal government and the celebration, with Chief Minister Bhajan Lal Sharma near finishing a 12 months in energy.
Two of Congress’s high leaders are additionally occupied with Maharashtra. The celebration has appointed three-time Chief Minister Ashok Gehlot as AICC senior observer for the Mumbai and Konkan divisions whereas Sachin Pilot has been appointed as AICC senior observer for the Marathwada division. As they’re but to be lively in Rajasthan bypolls, celebration leaders say that the majority exercise will start Monday onwards after the competition break.
Regardless of the challenges, Congress leaders are nonetheless hopeful of retaining all 4 seats. “The Congress had 4 of those seats and we’ll win all 4. The BJP has been making extra noise because it’s the ruling celebration whereas we now have been engaged on the bottom quietly,” stated a Congress chief.
