NEW YORK — Uncertainty reins coming into the ultimate full week of the 2024 marketing campaign with Democrat Kamala Harris and Republican Donald Trump locked in a fiercely aggressive presidential contest. What occurs within the coming days might be pivotal in deciding the winner.
This is what we’re watching this week:
U.S. presidential elections are hardly ever formed by overseas affairs, however the wars within the Center East are escalating on the very second that hundreds of thousands of voters are making ready to solid ballots.
It is nonetheless unclear how Iran would reply to Israel’s unusually public airstrikes throughout Iran on Friday. The reply may decide whether or not the area spirals additional towards all-out conflict or holds regular at an already devastating and destabilizing stage of violence.
Iran’s response may additionally decide the extent to which the Center East battle shapes the U.S. election.
The difficulty has been particularly troublesome for Harris to navigate as she concurrently vows to assist Israel and gives empathy for these tens of hundreds of Palestinians killed by Israel’s response to Hamas’ Oct. 7, 2023 assaults. The Democratic vp continues to face intense strain from her get together’s progressive base, which has been extraordinarily vital of Israel.
Trump has been unapologetically supportive of Israel, though some Arab American leaders — particularly in swing-state Michigan — have been unusually supportive of the Republican former president, who famously banned journey from many Muslim nations throughout his first time period.
Even in a best-case situation, the subsequent president will inherit some of the unstable overseas coverage challenges in many years.
It could be an understatement to explain Democrats as anxious as Election Day looms. However there was a deliberate effort by Harris’ senior staff over the weekend to challenge optimism to assist mood the concern.
Harris senior adviser Jenn O’Malley Dillon predicted victory on MSNBC on Sunday: “We’re assured we’re going to win this factor,” she mentioned. “We’re seeing extraordinary enthusiasm. That is going to be an in depth race, and our marketing campaign is strictly the place we need to be.”
Harris will attempt to alleviate Democratic nervousness additional on Tuesday when she delivers her “closing argument” on the Ellipse, the identical spot close to the White Home the place Trump spoke on Jan. 6, 2021 shortly earlier than his supporters attacked the Capitol.
Harris is predicted to focus her remarks on the hazard Trump poses to U.S. democracy. She has known as her Republican rival “a fascist” in current days. And she or he’s been joined by an unlikely ally, Trump’s former chief of workers John Kelly, who has additionally described Trump as a fascist lately.
However she’s anticipated to hit broader themes as properly, encouraging voters to look behind her on the White Home and picture who might be sitting on the Resolute Desk at a second of nice consequence. She’s aiming to drive dwelling the stakes of the Nov. 5 election for undecided voters — particularly average Republicans who could also be uncomfortable with Trump’s divisive management and excessive rhetoric. And whereas Harris’ staff is betting that there’s a important variety of moderates who can nonetheless be persuaded, progressive Democrats are apprehensive she’s not centered sufficient on financial points within the marketing campaign’s closing days.
Democratic nervousness, now we have discovered, could also be a truth of life.
Even earlier than the week started, Trump’s marketing campaign risked being knocked off track by controversy. A rally at New York Metropolis’s Madison Sq. Backyard late Sunday that was meant to function a closing message was as an alternative overshadowed by racist insults, together with a comic who known as Puerto Rico a “floating island of rubbish.”
And with eight days to go till Election Day, historical past suggests Trump is nearly assured to say or do one thing else controversial within the ultimate stretch. The one query is whether or not it’s going to break by way of.
If there’s one factor we all know, it is that Trump can not assist himself. He is been utilizing authoritarian-style rhetoric in current days to counsel that his Democratic opponents, whom he calls “ the enemy inside,” are extra harmful to the nation than the risk posed by Russia and China.
Democrats might be combing by way of each Trump interview and public look for one thing just like exploit. There are additionally a number of ongoing legal investigations into Trump, who has already been convicted of 34 felony expenses, that might reveal new info.
But Democrats are the primary to confess that voter opinions of Trump is so hardened that it could take one thing actually gorgeous to vary the course of the election.
There may be precedent for a final-week stunner, nevertheless. Keep in mind, it was Oct. 28, 2016 when former FBI Director James Comey despatched a letter to Congress indicating that federal investigators discovered of latest emails pertinent to the investigation into Hillary Clinton’s use of a personal e-mail server.
The candidates’ evolving journey schedules will inform us a lot in regards to the battlegrounds that can matter most on Election Day.
This is what we all know for certain: Harris and Trump are aggressively competing in simply seven swing states that can in the end resolve the election. They’re the three so-called “Blue Wall” states — Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin — along with Arizona, Georgia, Nevada and North Carolina.
For a political perspective, nevertheless, not each one of many seven is created equal.
Harris spent Sunday in Pennsylvania, which could be the election’s largest prize. Harris is subsequent scheduled to go to Michigan. And after Tuesday’s closing argument in Washington, she plans to go to North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin on Wednesday alone. She heads to Nevada and Arizona on Thursday.
What will we learn about Trump’s schedule? He is booked to host no less than one rally each day subsequent week: Monday in Georgia, Tuesday in Pennsylvania, Wednesday in Wisconsin, Thursday in Nevada, Friday in Wisconsin once more and Saturday in Virginia.
However as a reminder, these schedules are more likely to change primarily based on the campaigns’ intelligence on the bottom.
Greater than 41 million votes have already been solid within the election nationwide. Democrats usually have a bonus in early voting, however thus far, no less than, Republicans are taking part at a a lot increased price than they’ve prior to now.
The query: Will it final?
Trump, in fact, has for years inspired his supporters to solid solely in-person ballots on Election Day. The observe put the GOP at a major drawback. He largely reversed course in current months as he and his get together acknowledged the plain good thing about with the ability to financial institution their votes as early as potential.
Due to the Republican participation, the early turnout was breaking data final week in swing states reminiscent of Georgia and North Carolina.
However with the GOP extra centered on “election integrity” relatively than a standard get-out-the-vote operation, it is unclear whether or not the uptick in Republican early voting will proceed. Democrats hope it will not.
Historical past could at some point resolve that probably the most important factor Trump mentioned within the closing days of the 2024 election is the factor that many citizens barely discover anymore: his persistent warnings that this election is rigged in opposition to him.
Certainly, as Election Day approaches, Trump is more and more warning his supporters that he’ll lose on Nov. 5 provided that his political opponents cheat. Such statements haven’t any foundation in reality. There was no proof of great voter fraud within the 2020 election, which Trump misplaced, and there’s no proof that Trump’s adversaries can or will rig this election in opposition to him both.
Nonetheless, Trump’s unfounded warnings make an already tense and violent election season much more fraught. And there are actual threats that overseas adversaries — particularly Russia, China and Iran — will meddle within the election.
On the identical time, the Republican Nationwide Committee has invested tens of hundreds of thousands of {dollars} into an operation to mobilize hundreds of polling place displays, ballot staff and attorneys to function “election integrity” watchdogs. Democrats are apprehensive that the trouble may result in harassment of election staff and undermine belief within the vote.
Each events are aggressively making ready for lengthy authorized battles irrespective of who wins.
